# USDA takes axe to wheat production estimate | The Western Producer

> USDA's Small Grains 2022 summary cut the US total wheat production forecast to 1.65 billion bushels from 1.783 billion in August, largely from a two-million-acre reduction in harvested area. The spring wheat forecast of 482 million bushels and durum forecast of 64 million bushels both came in well below trade estimates. Wheat futures rose 16 to 25 cents per bushel across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis.

- Date: 2022-10-06 · published 2022-10-06T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5092-usda-takes-axe-to-wheat-production-estimate-the-western-producer
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

A materially smaller US wheat crop than expected tightens domestic supply and supports wheat prices, raising the cost of wheat as a feed ingredient.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: neutral
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-13 | [Wheat Prices Rally on Lower U.S. Winter Wheat Production Estimate - Northern Ag Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64483-wheat-prices-rally-on-lower-u-s-winter-wheat-production-estimate-northern-ag.md) | -2.0% | -8.2% |
| WHEAT | 2020-01-15 | [Markets react as USDA reduces production estimates \| The Rural \| Wagga Wagga, NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55031-markets-react-as-usda-reduces-production-estimates-the-rural-wagga-wagga-nsw.md) | +0.0% | -5.4% |
| WHEAT | 2019-11-06 | [Australia: FCStone estimates wheat production at only](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56011-australia-fcstone-estimates-wheat-production-at-only.md) | +3.2% | +7.4% |
| WHEAT | 2018-02-22 | [Early Estimates Expect 2018/19 Wheat Production to Fall in the Black Sea - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66432-early-estimates-expect-2018-19-wheat-production-to-fall-in-the-black-sea-u-s.md) | +1.3% | +1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-12 | [Wheat Rallies the Limit on Tuesday as USDA Releases Production Updates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10795-wheat-rallies-the-limit-on-tuesday-as-usda-releases-production-updates.md) | +2.0% | -3.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-01-15 | [Markets react as USDA reduces production estimates \| The Rural \| Wagga Wagga, NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55031-markets-react-as-usda-reduces-production-estimates-the-rural-wagga-wagga-nsw.md) | -0.9% | -5.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-12 | [Wheat Rallies the Limit on Tuesday as USDA Releases Production Updates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10795-wheat-rallies-the-limit-on-tuesday-as-usda-releases-production-updates.md) | +4.5% | -6.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-09-19 | [Weather Continues to Affect Global Wheat Production - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62993-weather-continues-to-affect-global-wheat-production-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | +1.2% | +2.3% |

## Sources

- producer.com: https://www.producer.com/markets/usda-takes-axe-to-wheat-production-estimate/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.