# Grains Close Higher a Second Week: How High Will Prices Rally? - AgWeb

> US grain futures closed higher for a second week, with wheat leading gains. Analyst Shawn Hackett said the rally reflects a geopolitical risk premium tied to fighting in the Black Sea region and disruption to Russian wheat exports, with duration of the conflict determining how much further prices may rise.

- Date: 2026-07-17 · published 2026-07-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5067-grains-close-higher-a-second-week-how-high-will-prices-rally-agweb
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Continued Black Sea export disruption keeps a war premium in wheat futures, and prices could move higher if disruption extends into August or beyond.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-20 | 1 | +3.0% | 3.6 | Notes wheat led a second weekly grain gain on a Black Sea geopolitical risk premium, with momentum carrying into the following session. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-12-19 | [Terrain \| Rally in U.S. Wheat Prices Will Depend on Russia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32745-terrain-rally-in-u-s-wheat-prices-will-depend-on-russia.md) | +0.4% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2022-03-02 | [Wheat Prices Shoot to 14-Year High on Concerns over Conflict Between Russia and Ukraine - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42324-wheat-prices-shoot-to-14-year-high-on-concerns-over-conflict-between-russia-and.md) | +6.9% | +20.3% |
| WHEAT | 2022-03-22 | [Crops extend gains on supply worries with soy at 2-week high - Moneyweb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6247-crops-extend-gains-on-supply-worries-with-soy-at-2-week-high-moneyweb.md) | +2.0% | -9.1% |
| WHEAT | 2025-02-14 | [Wheat, the Dog of the Grain Complex, Rallies to New Highs for the Move - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26092-wheat-the-dog-of-the-grain-complex-rallies-to-new-highs-for-the-move-agweb.md) | +1.6% | -2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-24 | [Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18388-grains-markets-hit-new-highs-on-black-sea-attacks-crude-oil-rally.md) | -2.2% | +2.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-12-19 | [Terrain \| Rally in U.S. Wheat Prices Will Depend on Russia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32745-terrain-rally-in-u-s-wheat-prices-will-depend-on-russia.md) | +2.4% | -3.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-03-02 | [Wheat Prices Shoot to 14-Year High on Concerns over Conflict Between Russia and Ukraine - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42324-wheat-prices-shoot-to-14-year-high-on-concerns-over-conflict-between-russia-and.md) | +17.2% | +1.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-02-14 | [Wheat, the Dog of the Grain Complex, Rallies to New Highs for the Move - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26092-wheat-the-dog-of-the-grain-complex-rallies-to-new-highs-for-the-move-agweb.md) | +1.8% | -4.1% |

## Sources

- agweb.com: https://www.agweb.com/markets/market-analysis/grains-close-higher-second-week-how-high-will-prices-rally

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.