# OPEC+ fears second virus wave could lead to oil surplus in 2021 - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow.com

> A confidential OPEC+ technical committee document shows a worst-case scenario in which the oil market moves into surplus in 2021, driven by a second COVID-19 wave and rising Libyan output. The base case still shows a 1.9 million bpd deficit in 2021, smaller than the prior month's 2.7 million bpd.

- Date: 2020-10-17 · published 2020-10-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/50553-opec-fears-second-virus-wave-could-lead-to-oil-surplus-in-2021-energy-news-top
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A growing surplus risk in 2021 would weigh on crude prices, while the base case still points to a deficit that limits the downside.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2017-12-01 | [Oil Trades Below $57 After IEA Says OPEC May Not See Happy 2018 - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67642-oil-trades-below-57-after-iea-says-opec-may-not-see-happy-2018-energy-news-top.md) | -2.0% | +4.9% |
| BRENT | 2019-09-12 | [Oil Slips as OPEC Seen Facing Tough Test to Balance Market - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57249-oil-slips-as-opec-seen-facing-tough-test-to-balance-market-energy-news-top.md) | +3.3% | -4.7% |
| BRENT | 2019-08-16 | [OPEC sees bearish oil outlook for rest of 2019, points to 2020 surplus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57507-opec-sees-bearish-oil-outlook-for-rest-of-2019-points-to-2020-surplus.md) | +3.6% | +4.8% |
| BRENT | 2025-10-01 | [World oil market to see higher surplus after OPEC+ hike, IEA says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22773-world-oil-market-to-see-higher-surplus-after-opec-hike-iea-says.md) | -2.2% | -5.2% |
| BRENT | 2023-02-01 | [Crude oil prices forecast to decline beginning in the second half of 2023](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37958-crude-oil-prices-forecast-to-decline-beginning-in-the-second-half-of-2023.md) | -0.8% | -0.5% |
| WTI | 2017-12-01 | [Oil Trades Below $57 After IEA Says OPEC May Not See Happy 2018 - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67642-oil-trades-below-57-after-iea-says-opec-may-not-see-happy-2018-energy-news-top.md) | -1.5% | +5.3% |
| WTI | 2019-09-12 | [Oil Slips as OPEC Seen Facing Tough Test to Balance Market - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57249-oil-slips-as-opec-seen-facing-tough-test-to-balance-market-energy-news-top.md) | +4.4% | -5.5% |
| WTI | 2018-01-01 | [U.S. crude stocks rise as gasoline falls: EIA - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67154-u-s-crude-stocks-rise-as-gasoline-falls-eia-energy-news-top-headlines.md) | +2.1% | +6.9% |

## Sources

- energynow.com: https://energynow.com/2020/10/exclusive-opec-fears-second-virus-wave-could-lead-to-oil-surplus-in-2021/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.