# Fitch Expects CPO Prices to Weaken in 2025 Amid Improved Yield, Higher Soybean Output - MPOC

> Fitch Ratings expects crude palm oil prices to fall from above $1,100 per tonne to $800 per tonne in 2025. The forecast cites a slower rebound in yields, higher biodiesel consumption in Indonesia, and greater supply and competition from soybean output.

- Date: 2025-01-02 · published 2025-01-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5049-fitch-expects-cpo-prices-to-weaken-in-2025-amid-improved-yield-higher-soybean
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

A lower forecast reflects expectations of higher palm supply and stronger competition from soyoil, which pressures palm and soy oil prices. Indonesian biodiesel demand is the main offset that could limit the decline.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bearish ▼
- PALMOIL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2024-02-01 | [Malaysian palm oil output expected to improve this year \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15665-malaysian-palm-oil-output-expected-to-improve-this-year-the-western-producer.md) | -1.4% | -0.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2024-03-27 | [Fitch: Higher global vegetable oil supply to drag CPO prices lower in Q2 \| Malay Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31287-fitch-higher-global-vegetable-oil-supply-to-drag-cpo-prices-lower-in-q2-malay.md) | +3.8% | -2.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2022-06-10 | [Malaysia's palm oil stocks above expectations on higher-than-projected output in May \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15815-malaysia-s-palm-oil-stocks-above-expectations-on-higher-than-projected-output.md) | -6.3% | -32.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2022-03-24 | [Indonesian palm oil output, exports to hit record high in 2022-23 - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15835-indonesian-palm-oil-output-exports-to-hit-record-high-in-2022-23-grain-price.md) | -0.9% | -4.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2025-11-17 | [Malaysia’s Palm Oil Output Likely to Surpass 20 Million Tonnes For First Time in 2025 - MPOC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22051-malaysia-s-palm-oil-output-likely-to-surpass-20-million-tonnes-for-first-time.md) | -0.6% | -0.9% |
| SBO | 2018-09-12 | [USDA Pushes Corn, Soybean Yield Estimates Higher](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62988-usda-pushes-corn-soybean-yield-estimates-higher.md) | -2.2% | +4.5% |
| SBO | 2025-03-31 | [Soybeans Weaker as USDA Confirms Drop to Expected Acres](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25612-soybeans-weaker-as-usda-confirms-drop-to-expected-acres.md) | +3.5% | +11.6% |
| SBO | 2024-02-28 | [U.S. biofuel credit prices hit 3-year low, expected to stay weak, EIA says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31768-u-s-biofuel-credit-prices-hit-3-year-low-expected-to-stay-weak-eia-says.md) | -0.0% | +7.7% |

## Sources

- mpoc.org.my: https://www.mpoc.org.my/fitch-expects-cpo-prices-to-weaken-in-2025-amid-improved-yield-higher-soybean-output/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.