# A milk price forecast amid a pandemic

> Marin Bozic of the University of Minnesota says US September milk production rose 2.4% year on year, while only 16% of milk was covered by Dairy Revenue Protection for January to March 2021, down from 31% in the third quarter. He argues that CFAP and food box programs supported 2020 dairy incomes but may not continue at the same scale in 2021. He also flags possible dairy-specific disruptions from limited US cheese capacity.

- Date: 2020-11-06 · published 2020-11-06T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/50305-a-milk-price-forecast-amid-a-pandemic
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Rising milk supply and less hedging, combined with possible withdrawal of government support, point to downside risk for milk prices and dairy demand in 2021.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2020-04-03 | [U.S. dairy farmers dump milk as pandemic upends food markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4154-u-s-dairy-farmers-dump-milk-as-pandemic-upends-food-markets.md) | -5.0% | -21.3% |
| MILK | 2020-04-24 | [10% too much milk forces prices to plummet](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6501-10-too-much-milk-forces-prices-to-plummet.md) | -13.8% | -7.5% |
| MILK | 2020-04-24 | [Idaho dairymen dump milk as demand, prices fall \| Capital Press](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6502-idaho-dairymen-dump-milk-as-demand-prices-fall-capital-press.md) | -13.8% | -7.5% |
| MILK | 2021-07-07 | [What does inflation mean for milk prices? - Dairy Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46216-what-does-inflation-mean-for-milk-prices-dairy-producer.md) | +0.7% | -1.8% |
| MILK | 2023-03-17 | [As commodity prices slide, dairies brace for collapsing farmgate milk prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36864-as-commodity-prices-slide-dairies-brace-for-collapsing-farmgate-milk-prices.md) | +0.6% | +3.4% |

## Sources

- hoards.com: https://hoards.com/article-29036-A-milk-price-forecast-amid-a-pandemic.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.