# Global fertiliser prices set to drop but gas risks cause concern | Farm Online | ACT

> Rabobank says global fertiliser stocks are rebuilding and urea and phosphate prices, now about half their two-year peaks, could fall as much as 15% over the next five months. About 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate are likely to reach the market after Beijing suspended exports. Rising farm fuel prices and a lack of official guidance on Chinese export quotas add uncertainty.

- Date: 2024-04-24 · published 2024-04-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5022-global-fertiliser-prices-set-to-drop-but-gas-risks-cause-concern-farm-online-act
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md)

## Why it matters

Expected release of Chinese phosphate supply and rebuilding stocks should push DAP and urea prices lower, easing input costs for feed grain producers. Gas-linked risks could limit the decline, and China's export quota decisions remain a key swing factor.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bearish ▼
- UREA: bearish ▼
- NATGAS: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2024-04-25 | 1 | -12.3% | -7.7 | Rabobank's outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as roughly 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reach the market and stocks rebuild is a bearish supply and sentiment signal dated the day before the drop. |
| DAP | 2024-04-28 | 5 | -12.3% | -3.2 | Rabobank's April 24 outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as stocks rebuild and about 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate may reach the market is a bearish supply and sentiment signal that fits the DAP drop. |
| DAP | 2024-04-26 | 5 | -12.3% | -3.0 | Rabobank's forecast of rebuilding stocks, up to 15% further phosphate price declines and a potential ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market shifted supply expectations and sentiment bearishly. |
| DAP | 2024-04-26 | 1 | -12.3% | -7.7 | Rabobank's forecast of further phosphate price declines and an expected ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market suggest supply-driven bearish sentiment, though the timing precedes the move by two days and the size of the drop is far greater than a gradual forecast implies. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2023-04-11 | [Fertiliser prices rise by Tk5 per kg as govt reduces subsidy \| The Business Standard](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36724-fertiliser-prices-rise-by-tk5-per-kg-as-govt-reduces-subsidy-the-business.md) | +4.6% | +6.6% |
| UREA | 2022-10-03 | [U.N. pushes for global fertilizer price cut to avoid 'future crisis' \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39049-u-n-pushes-for-global-fertilizer-price-cut-to-avoid-future-crisis-reuters.md) | +2.0% | -12.6% |
| UREA | 2023-01-18 | [Softening global prices to cut fertiliser subsidy in FY24: Secy \| Financial Express Mumbai - newspaper - Read this story on Magzter.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38107-softening-global-prices-to-cut-fertiliser-subsidy-in-fy24-secy-financial.md) | -1.1% | -21.7% |
| UREA | 2025-11-26 | [Trump has cut tariffs on fertilizer, but lower prices could remain elusive \| Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4470-trump-has-cut-tariffs-on-fertilizer-but-lower-prices-could-remain-elusive-agri.md) | -7.1% | -4.5% |
| UREA | 2023-07-04 | [Fertiliser prices fall, firms to expand exports :: Content :: Tập đoàn Hoá chất Việt Nam (Vinachem)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34976-fertiliser-prices-fall-firms-to-expand-exports-content-tap-oan-hoa-chat-viet.md) | +2.6% | +37.6% |
| DAP | 2022-05-18 | [Global fertiliser rates soften after India’s cap on prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41715-global-fertiliser-rates-soften-after-india-s-cap-on-prices.md) | 0.0% | -11.0% |
| DAP | 2023-04-11 | [Fertiliser prices rise by Tk5 per kg as govt reduces subsidy \| The Business Standard](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36724-fertiliser-prices-rise-by-tk5-per-kg-as-govt-reduces-subsidy-the-business.md) | +8.6% | -3.4% |
| DAP | 2022-10-03 | [U.N. pushes for global fertilizer price cut to avoid 'future crisis' \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39049-u-n-pushes-for-global-fertilizer-price-cut-to-avoid-future-crisis-reuters.md) | -1.7% | -5.5% |

## Sources

- farmonline.com.au: https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/8603258/global-fertiliser-prices-set-to-drop-but-gas-risks-cause-concern/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.