# Commodity prices falling for very different reasons - PricePedia

> Non-ferrous metal prices on the LME fell 2% to 7% in the week to July 19, 2024, on concerns about slower Chinese growth and US protectionist policies including tariffs on Chinese metals transiting Mexico. Oil fell about 2.5% on the last trading day after reports of a possible Gaza ceasefire. Rough rice futures also dropped, driven by contract rollover effects rather than economics.

- Date: 2024-07-19 · published 2024-07-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4977-commodity-prices-falling-for-very-different-reasons-pricepedia
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Lower crude oil prices reduce energy costs and weaken the economics of biofuel feedstocks, which can pressure vegetable oil and corn-based ethanol margins. The rice decline is a technical futures-roll effect, so it does not signal a change in underlying supply.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- RICE: neutral
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2024-07-19 | 5 | -27.2% | -7.9 | It explicitly attributes the rough rice futures drop in the week to July 19 largely to contract rollover effects, which likely explains much of the extreme -27% move and z-score as a technical artifact rather than fundamentals. |
| RICE | 2024-07-17 | 5 | -26.9% | -8.2 | Attributes the rough rice futures drop partly to contract rollover effects, which could exaggerate the measured -27% move and explain the extreme z-score. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2023-06-09 | [Falling commodity prices stoke fear of global recession](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6884-falling-commodity-prices-stoke-fear-of-global-recession.md) | -0.9% | +2.5% |
| WTI | 2020-09-30 | [Prices for vegetable oil are falling after oil quotations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51197-prices-for-vegetable-oil-are-falling-after-oil-quotations.md) | +3.7% | +0.8% |
| WTI | 2021-06-21 | [Commodity Prices Dip As Dollar Surges \| OilPrice.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46491-commodity-prices-dip-as-dollar-surges-oilprice-com.md) | +3.5% | -7.3% |
| WTI | 2019-08-21 | [Weekly Pricing Pulse: Recession worries undercut commodity prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57752-weekly-pricing-pulse-recession-worries-undercut-commodity-prices.md) | -2.2% | +5.4% |
| WTI | 2026-07-02 | [Margins hold tight despite falling prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8576-margins-hold-tight-despite-falling-prices.md) | +7.0% | +23.3% |
| BRENT | 2022-08-22 | [Commodity prices down on rising dollar demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39941-commodity-prices-down-on-rising-dollar-demand.md) | +4.6% | -6.4% |
| BRENT | 2021-06-21 | [Commodity Prices Dip As Dollar Surges \| OilPrice.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46491-commodity-prices-dip-as-dollar-surges-oilprice-com.md) | +4.1% | +1.0% |
| BRENT | 2025-06-17 | [Real strengthens amid commodity bets, easing geopolitical fears](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24425-real-strengthens-amid-commodity-bets-easing-geopolitical-fears.md) | -1.7% | -5.5% |

## Sources

- pricepedia.it: https://www.pricepedia.it/en/magazine/article/2024/07/19/commodity-prices-falling-for-very-different-reasons/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.