# Trade dispute causes dairy prices to tumble

> Dairy product prices on the CME fell through June after US tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum and on some Chinese goods triggered retaliation. Mexico announced a tariff on US cheese, and China targeted some dairy products along with corn and soybeans. Cheddar barrels fell from $1.59 in early June to $1.32 by end-June.

- Date: 2018-07-02 · published 2018-07-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4969-trade-dispute-causes-dairy-prices-to-tumble
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Mexico is the largest export market for US cheese, so retaliatory tariffs cut export demand and pressure domestic dairy prices. Feed buyers should expect weaker milk and dairy-byproduct pricing while the trade dispute continues.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2018-07-10 | 5 | -7.1% | -3.1 | Retaliatory Mexican and Chinese tariffs on US dairy cut export demand and pushed cheese barrels sharply lower, directly pressuring Class III futures. |
| MILK | 2018-07-04 | 1 | -5.8% | -8.0 | Trade dispute with Mexico and China retaliatory tariffs on cheese drove cheese prices lower through June, lowering Class III value. |
| MILK | 2018-07-09 | 5 | -7.0% | -3.2 | Trade dispute retaliation drove cheese price declines through June, setting up weakness carried into the window. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2020-01-04 | [US dairy farmers battle extinction Trump trade wars lower milk prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4661-us-dairy-farmers-battle-extinction-trump-trade-wars-lower-milk-prices.md) | +0.6% | +0.6% |
| MILK | 2018-12-03 | [Trade war pushes milk price to 4-year low](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5422-trade-war-pushes-milk-price-to-4-year-low.md) | -5.6% | -4.5% |
| MILK | 2025-03-04 | [Dairy Markets on Edge: Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty Shake Prices - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25587-dairy-markets-on-edge-tariffs-and-trade-uncertainty-shake-prices-dairy-herd.md) | -8.9% | -7.7% |
| MILK | 2018-09-06 | [Global dairy prices take a hit \| 2018-09-06  \| Dairy Foods](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63186-global-dairy-prices-take-a-hit-2018-09-06-dairy-foods.md) | -2.5% | -4.5% |
| MILK | 2023-02-02 | [US cheese and dairy growth, prices on a downward trend - Food & Agribusiness](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5879-us-cheese-and-dairy-growth-prices-on-a-downward-trend-food-and-agribusiness.md) | -0.5% | -1.1% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/dairy-cattle/trade-dispute-causes-dairy-prices-to-tumble

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.