# Forecast of near record 51.5m tonne national winter crop

> ABARES' December 2020 Crop Report forecasts Australia's 2020-21 winter crop at 51.5 million tonnes, up 76% year on year and second only to the 2016-17 record of 56.7 million. New South Wales is expected to post a record crop, helped by favourable September and October rainfall. Wheat, barley and canola forecasts all rose.

- Date: 2020-11-30 · published 2020-11-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/49624-forecast-of-near-record-51-5m-tonne-national-winter-crop
- Commodities: [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Supplies of wheat, barley and canola from Australia will be large, which weighs on export prices and gives feed buyers cheaper grain options. The size of the crop also reduces the need for imported feed grains in the region.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- BARLEY: bearish ▼
- CANMEAL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2017-03-08 | [Record crop production forecast: ABARES](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71943-record-crop-production-forecast-abares.md) | -0.6% | +0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2017-01-12 | [NSW winter crop set to break the record - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72954-nsw-winter-crop-set-to-break-the-record-abc-news.md) | +0.9% | +5.3% |
| WHEAT | 2016-11-01 | [Near record crop beckons \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73815-near-record-crop-beckons-farm-online-act.md) | +0.2% | -3.5% |
| WHEAT | 2017-08-14 | [WA winter crop forecast now 10Mt – up from 7.8Mt last month - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69414-wa-winter-crop-forecast-now-10mt-up-from-7-8mt-last-month-grain-central.md) | +0.4% | -0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2016-11-25 | [Record yields at Walgett fuel buoyant national crop outlook - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73809-record-yields-at-walgett-fuel-buoyant-national-crop-outlook-grain-central.md) | -3.0% | +0.8% |

## Sources

- farmonline.com.au: https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/7034911/farmers-tipped-to-harvest-a-near-record-515-million-tonnes-of-grain/
- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/news/australia-on-track-for-near-record-51-5mt-winter-crop-abares/
- rbmagazine.com.au: https://www.rbmagazine.com.au/news/forecast-near-record-515m-tonne-national-winter-crop/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.