# Market Impact Analysis: CVD Investigation on Fertilizer Causing Tight U.S. Supply is Costing U.S. Farmers — Trade Alliance to Promote Prosperity

> The US International Trade Commission began a countervailing duty investigation into phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco in June 2020, after a petition from Mosaic. Imports of DAP and MAP from Morocco fell to zero by August, and a final duty decision is expected in February 2021, with duties possibly applied retroactively to June.

- Date: 2021-01-21 · published 2021-01-21T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/49462-market-impact-analysis-cvd-investigation-on-fertilizer-causing-tight-u-s-supply
- Commodities: [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Halted Moroccan imports tighten US phosphate supply ahead of spring application, which supports higher DAP and MAP prices. The pending duty decision adds further uncertainty to availability and cost.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2021-02-04 | 5 | +31.8% | 12.3 | The US CVD investigation on Moroccan phosphate cut imports to zero and tightened US supply, with a final decision due in February 2021, supporting a sharp DAP price jump. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2021-01-21 | [Price Action Analysis: The Mosaic Company  — Trade Alliance to Promote Prosperity](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49468-price-action-analysis-the-mosaic-company-trade-alliance-to-promote-prosperity.md) | +3.9% | +35.0% |
| DAP | 2020-08-07 | [USITC Votes to Continue Investigations Concerning Phosphate Fertilizers from Morocco and Russia \| United States International Trade Commission](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51918-usitc-votes-to-continue-investigations-concerning-phosphate-fertilizers-from.md) | +2.6% | +11.7% |
| DAP | 2024-06-03 | [Punitive Biden Phosphate Tariff on Morocco Hurts Farmers, Grocery Consumers — Trade Alliance to Promote Prosperity](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30112-punitive-biden-phosphate-tariff-on-morocco-hurts-farmers-grocery-consumers.md) | +0.7% | +2.7% |
| DAP | 2025-11-06 | [Fertilizer Market Faces Tight Supplies, Confusing Fundamentals - RFD-TV](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22264-fertilizer-market-faces-tight-supplies-confusing-fundamentals-rfd-tv.md) | +1.1% | -11.4% |
| DAP | 2020-07-17 | [U.S. Department of Commerce Initiates Countervailing Duty Investigations of Imports of Phosphate Fertilizers from Morocco and Russia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52061-u-s-department-of-commerce-initiates-countervailing-duty-investigations-of.md) | +1.3% | +11.1% |

## Sources

- promote-trade.org: https://www.promote-trade.org/issue-guides/2021/1/21/cvd-investigation-on-fertilizer-causing-tight-us-supply-is-costing-us-farmers

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.