# Analyst Insight: The Brazilian Safrinha crop could drive global grain markets | AHDB

> UK and Chicago grain futures closed lower on 20 January as improved South American weather and expected US Great Plains rains eased prices. The analysis says global prices remain supported by low US maize stocks and dryness in South America, and that the Brazilian safrinha crop is the main remaining supply risk.

- Date: 2021-01-21 · published 2021-01-21T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/48974-analyst-insight-the-brazilian-safrinha-crop-could-drive-global-grain-markets
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

The safrinha crop is the swing factor for global maize supply, so its outcome will decide whether current price support holds or fades.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-02-08 | [La Niña in 2024 could drive grain prices: Grain market daily \| AHDB](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31588-la-nina-in-2024-could-drive-grain-prices-grain-market-daily-ahdb.md) | -1.4% | +1.6% |
| CORN | 2016-07-13 | [Global Grain Insight: Markets will be driven by weather regardless of Brexit - Farmers Weekly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7498-global-grain-insight-markets-will-be-driven-by-weather-regardless-of-brexit.md) | +7.6% | +2.1% |
| CORN | 2024-04-15 | [Weather a driver for the grain markets - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13196-weather-a-driver-for-the-grain-markets-brownfield-ag-news.md) | -0.2% | +2.0% |
| CORN | 2022-04-27 | [Brazil’s Safrinha Corn Crop to Hit Record High…So Long as it Rains \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13727-brazil-s-safrinha-corn-crop-to-hit-record-high-so-long-as-it-rains-cz-app.md) | -6.4% | -1.7% |
| CORN | 2021-06-30 | [Average Corn, Soybean Crops Could Be the 2021 Story, Analyst Says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46420-average-corn-soybean-crops-could-be-the-2021-story-analyst-says.md) | -0.4% | -10.6% |
| WHEAT | 2018-05-08 | [Grain Markets Move Sharply Up or Down, Analyst Says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7883-grain-markets-move-sharply-up-or-down-analyst-says.md) | -1.4% | +2.2% |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-29 | [Dip in grain prices may linger but prices could strengthen - High Plains Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40511-dip-in-grain-prices-may-linger-but-prices-could-strengthen-high-plains-journal.md) | +4.4% | -0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2026-06-03 | [Drought and frosts put pressure on second-crop corn in the country - Cultivar Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13430-drought-and-frosts-put-pressure-on-second-crop-corn-in-the-country-cultivar.md) | -1.1% | +1.1% |

## Sources

- ahdb.org.uk: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/analyst-insight-the-brazilian-safrinha-crop-could-drive-global-grain-markets

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.