# 2021 Long-range Outlook  — AgEcon

> The AgEcon long-range outlook reports that the IRI ENSO forecast has improved since January, with La Niña odds still elevated but El Niño seen as a long shot for 2021. A weak La Niña Modoki pattern is maintaining a wet signal for much of eastern Australia's cropping belt, and soil moisture has replenished.

- Date: 2021-02-18 · published 2021-02-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/48534-2021-long-range-outlook-agecon
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Replenished Australian soil moisture and wetter outlooks point to improving crop prospects, which could bring grain supply pressure and soften Australian wheat and barley prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- BARLEY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2020-05-05 | [Winter Crop Outlook Australia: Strong Rebound](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53071-winter-crop-outlook-australia-strong-rebound.md) | -1.7% | -1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2025-07-31 | [Australia's crop outlook improves after soaking rainfall \| The Land \| NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23717-australia-s-crop-outlook-improves-after-soaking-rainfall-the-land-nsw.md) | -0.5% | -0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2020-07-23 | [Positive outlook for feed grain production \| Meat & Livestock Australia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52067-positive-outlook-for-feed-grain-production-meat-and-livestock-australia.md) | +0.7% | -1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-06-02 | [Chicago grain falls as US weather lifts crop outlook - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10648-chicago-grain-falls-as-us-weather-lifts-crop-outlook-markets-business-recorder.md) | -1.3% | +0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2019-04-23 | [Global Wheat Market Outlook For Australian Growers](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59641-global-wheat-market-outlook-for-australian-growers.md) | -4.2% | -0.6% |

## Sources

- agecon.com.au: https://www.agecon.com.au/all-articles/climate-wrap-up-august-2020-c3x6b-3zhtp-xjxss-emcts-y26nt-42m5t-k58en-rexml-nby6x-ed98c

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.