# The higher forecast production in the new season lowers the price of wheat old crop

> Sovecon raised its 2021 Russian wheat crop forecast by 3.1 million tonnes to 79.3 million, and its Ukrainian forecast by 0.8 million to 27.8 million tonnes. Chicago July wheat fell 0.6% and Chicago wheat declined after improved US winter crop conditions.

- Date: 2021-03-18 · published 2021-03-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/48191-the-higher-forecast-production-in-the-new-season-lowers-the-price-of-wheat-old
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Larger Black Sea and US crop forecasts add supply pressure and point to lower wheat prices for feed buyers in the new season.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-08-13 | [Despite lower production and inventory forecasts in the USDA report, wheat exchange prices fell](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28812-despite-lower-production-and-inventory-forecasts-in-the-usda-report-wheat.md) | -6.7% | -2.9% |
| WHEAT | 2022-12-12 | [Wheat prices fall despite a downgrade in the USDA’s global production forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5522-wheat-prices-fall-despite-a-downgrade-in-the-usda-s-global-production-forecast.md) | +10.5% | +5.6% |
| WHEAT | 2017-02-02 | [Wheat producers facing below cost of production prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72524-wheat-producers-facing-below-cost-of-production-prices.md) | +3.4% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2017-09-13 | [France raises again its forecast for soft wheat production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68911-france-raises-again-its-forecast-for-soft-wheat-production.md) | +0.7% | +4.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-12-19 | [Increasing forecasts of wheat harvest and exports from Canada lowers quotations in the US](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32746-increasing-forecasts-of-wheat-harvest-and-exports-from-canada-lowers-quotations.md) | +0.4% | +1.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-08-13 | [Despite lower production and inventory forecasts in the USDA report, wheat exchange prices fell](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28812-despite-lower-production-and-inventory-forecasts-in-the-usda-report-wheat.md) | -1.4% | +5.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-02-02 | [Wheat producers facing below cost of production prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72524-wheat-producers-facing-below-cost-of-production-prices.md) | +0.3% | +4.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-12-19 | [Increasing forecasts of wheat harvest and exports from Canada lowers quotations in the US](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32746-increasing-forecasts-of-wheat-harvest-and-exports-from-canada-lowers-quotations.md) | +2.4% | -3.6% |

## Sources

- graintrade.com.ua: https://graintrade.com.ua/en/novosti/pidvishennya-prognoziv-virobnitctva-v-novomu-sezoni-opuskae-tcini-na-pshenitcyu-starogo-vr.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.