# China’s pork herd recovery still a long way off – despite Govt rhetoric - Beef Central

> Analyst Simon Quilty says China's claimed pig herd recovery is overstated, estimating 7 to 8 million sows lost in recent ASF outbreaks over eight weeks. He spoke at an ABARES conference panel on global meat trade.

- Date: 2021-03-04 · published 2021-03-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region China · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/48103-china-s-pork-herd-recovery-still-a-long-way-off-despite-govt-rhetoric-beef
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker-than-claimed Chinese herd implies lower feed grain and protein meal demand and sustained import needs for meat, a mixed signal for feed prices and pork trade.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- HOGS: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HOGS | 2021-03-15 | [China’s beef herd to grow, on the back of high meat prices - Beef Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48053-china-s-beef-herd-to-grow-on-the-back-of-high-meat-prices-beef-central.md) | +2.7% | +13.0% |
| HOGS | 2020-10-01 | [China's pig herd rebounds after swine fever, but pork supply will take time to recover \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50641-china-s-pig-herd-rebounds-after-swine-fever-but-pork-supply-will-take-time-to.md) | +3.4% | -4.9% |
| HOGS | 2016-12-31 | [China will rely on pork imports - prices over €3 / kg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73455-china-will-rely-on-pork-imports-prices-over-3-kg.md) | -0.9% | +7.3% |
| HOGS | 2019-01-11 | [The Year of the Pig Will Be a Pig of a Year for China's Hogs - Caixin Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61088-the-year-of-the-pig-will-be-a-pig-of-a-year-for-china-s-hogs-caixin-global.md) | -1.4% | -7.7% |
| HOGS | 2025-10-12 | [Hog prices slump as China's pork glut deepens - CME
						 \| The Pig Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5784-hog-prices-slump-as-china-s-pork-glut-deepens-cme-the-pig-site.md) | -9.5% | -13.5% |
| CORN | 2018-11-19 | [Imported beef will play a role in China's post ASF disease pig industry restructure - Beef Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61978-imported-beef-will-play-a-role-in-china-s-post-asf-disease-pig-industry.md) | -1.4% | +8.5% |
| CORN | 2020-02-11 | [China's coronavirus clampdown pushes pork prices towards record](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54564-china-s-coronavirus-clampdown-pushes-pork-prices-towards-record.md) | +0.7% | +0.7% |
| CORN | 2020-06-26 | [Grocery Prices Begin Recovery From Avian Flu Spike](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52623-grocery-prices-begin-recovery-from-avian-flu-spike.md) | +4.6% | +0.9% |

## Sources

- beefcentral.com: https://www.beefcentral.com/news/187021/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.