# ASF the dominating factor in pork market uncertainty | Feed Strategy

> A Rabobank report says African swine fever remains a major driver of pork market uncertainty, especially in China and Germany. It estimates China's sow herd is 10% to 15% larger than a year ago, with full recovery not expected before 2023.

- Date: 2021-03-16 · published 2021-03-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region China · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/48101-asf-the-dominating-factor-in-pork-market-uncertainty-feed-strategy
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Slow Chinese herd recovery and volatile hog prices limit feed demand growth, supporting a cautious outlook for feed grains and meal while lifting hog price volatility.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- HOGS: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HOGS | 2021-05-12 | [ASF, grain price volatility add risk to pig production \| Feed Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47095-asf-grain-price-volatility-add-risk-to-pig-production-feed-strategy.md) | -0.5% | +7.6% |
| HOGS | 2019-05-23 | [China pork market shows surprising resilience: USMEF](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59079-china-pork-market-shows-surprising-resilience-usmef.md) | -4.5% | -8.0% |
| HOGS | 2020-01-21 | [China rebuilds swine herd; poultry, aqua demand grows \| Feed Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55069-china-rebuilds-swine-herd-poultry-aqua-demand-grows-feed-strategy.md) | -0.6% | -13.1% |
| HOGS | 2022-08-12 | [Vigilance and preparedness are priorities in keeping ASF out of the US \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16253-vigilance-and-preparedness-are-priorities-in-keeping-asf-out-of-the-us-meat.md) | -13.5% | -19.9% |
| HOGS | 2021-01-29 | [New China African Swine Fever Strains Point to Unlicensed Vaccines \| News & Media Relations \| Colorado State University](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49031-new-china-african-swine-fever-strains-point-to-unlicensed-vaccines-news-and.md) | +1.8% | +22.1% |
| CORN | 2019-11-15 | [ADM exec: ASF in China positively affecting margins \| Feed Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56057-adm-exec-asf-in-china-positively-affecting-margins-feed-strategy.md) | -0.7% | -2.8% |
| CORN | 2020-03-04 | [Coronavirus complicates ASF situation in China \| Feed Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54125-coronavirus-complicates-asf-situation-in-china-feed-strategy.md) | +1.1% | -0.6% |
| CORN | 2021-04-22 | [ASF resurgence in China may slow imports of feedgrains \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47644-asf-resurgence-in-china-may-slow-imports-of-feedgrains-the-western-producer.md) | +11.6% | +9.8% |

## Sources

- feedstrategy.com: https://www.feedstrategy.com/animal-health-veterinary/african-swine-fever/article/15442074/asf-the-dominating-factor-in-pork-market-uncertainty

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.