# Urea market on fire, stronger Rand keeps Phosphates and Potash stable.

> Urea prices rose by double-digit percentages across all regions in the week to July 27, 2023, as sellers pushed prices higher ahead of an Indian tender seeking about 1 million tonnes, closing 9 August. Early indications pointed to a price near $420/t CFR India, about $140/t above the June tender. Phosphate and potash prices were broadly stable, with the stronger rand limiting South African rand-denominated gains.

- Date: 2023-07-29 · published 2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region India · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4757-urea-market-on-fire-stronger-rand-keeps-phosphates-and-potash-stable
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md), [South African Rand (ZAR per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDZAR.md)

## Why it matters

A large Indian tender and possible Chinese export restrictions point to continued upward pressure on nitrogen prices. Higher fertilizer costs feed into grain production economics, while the stable phosphate and potash prices limit broader input inflation.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: neutral
- UREA: bullish ▲
- POTASH: neutral
- USDZAR: neutral

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2023-07-28 | 5 | +31.8% | 4.6 | Double-digit weekly urea price gains globally as sellers pushed prices ahead of an Indian tender for ~1 Mt closing 9 August, a direct demand and trade-flow driver of the move. |
| UREA | 2023-07-27 | 5 | +31.8% | 5.1 | Double-digit urea price gains in the week to July 27 as sellers priced ahead of an Indian tender for about 1 Mt, indicated about $140/t above the June tender, which directly explains the move through demand and sentiment. |
| UREA | 2023-07-27 | 1 | +24.1% | 9.1 | Double-digit urea price gains across all regions in the week to July 27, driven by sellers pricing ahead of an Indian tender for ~1 Mt, directly explains the one-day jump. |
| UREA | 2023-07-28 | 1 | +24.1% | 8.8 | Double-digit price jumps across regions ahead of a roughly 1 Mt Indian tender, with a price indication about $140/t above June, point to demand-driven repricing in the week to July 27. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2024-02-02 | [Urea keeps rising, while Potash declines.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31976-urea-keeps-rising-while-potash-declines.md) | -1.0% | +9.9% |
| UREA | 2024-12-16 | [Urea Prices Surge But Phosphate and Ammonia Struggle \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26888-urea-prices-surge-but-phosphate-and-ammonia-struggle-cz-app.md) | +0.2% | +8.7% |
| UREA | 2025-04-28 | [Fertilizer Prices Surge as Spring Imports Drive Urea, Phosphate, Potash \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4274-fertilizer-prices-surge-as-spring-imports-drive-urea-phosphate-potash-cz-app.md) | +13.4% | +10.6% |
| UREA | 2020-06-22 | [Urea market stages recovery on buying interest in Latin America and Africa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52542-urea-market-stages-recovery-on-buying-interest-in-latin-america-and-africa.md) | +2.3% | +6.2% |
| UREA | 2024-01-15 | [Urea, Phosphate Prices Rise on Tight Availability \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32051-urea-phosphate-prices-rise-on-tight-availability-cz-app.md) | -0.3% | +12.6% |
| DAP | 2020-06-22 | [AFRICA • Moscow and Riyadh challenge Rabat on African phosphates market - 22/06/2020 - Africa Intelligence](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52929-africa-moscow-and-riyadh-challenge-rabat-on-african-phosphates-market-22-06.md) | +4.5% | +12.0% |
| DAP | 2024-03-05 | [Moroccan Phosphate Exports Surge as Markets Stabilize](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31543-moroccan-phosphate-exports-surge-as-markets-stabilize.md) | +3.3% | -7.4% |
| DAP | 2024-10-28 | [Morocco’s phosphate fertilizer exports to EU surge, securing a strong position in European market - The Morocco Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28198-morocco-s-phosphate-fertilizer-exports-to-eu-surge-securing-a-strong-position.md) | +0.9% | +0.9% |

## Sources

- farmingportal.co.za: https://www.farmingportal.co.za/index.php/agri-index/68-crops/9699-urea-market-on-fire-stronger-rand-keeps-phosphates-and-potash-stable

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.