# Predicting the duration of El Niño and La Niña events with multiyear lead time | US CLIVAR

> A US CLIVAR study shows that the duration of individual ENSO events from 1954 to 2015 can be predicted up to two years ahead using the Community Earth System Model. About 30% of El Niño and 50% of La Niña events persist for two to three years, yet current operational forecasts cover only about 12 months.

- Date: 2021-04-23 · published 2021-04-23T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/47528-predicting-the-duration-of-el-nino-and-la-nina-events-with-multiyear-lead-time
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Longer-lead ENSO forecasts could help traders and feed buyers anticipate multi-year weather risk to crops. The research itself does not move current prices.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2025-08-19 | [El Niño and La Niña affect grain production in Goiás and the Federal District - Cultivar Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23242-el-nino-and-la-nina-affect-grain-production-in-goias-and-the-federal-district.md) | +1.2% | +8.5% |
| CORN | 2020-10-23 | [The Rise of El Niño and La Niña \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50568-the-rise-of-el-nino-and-la-nina-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +0.8% | +10.6% |
| CORN | 2025-06-19 | [Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts \| CRUCIAL](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24122-five-tips-for-making-the-most-of-el-nino-and-la-nina-forecasts-crucial.md) | -3.3% | -3.7% |
| CORN | 2017-10-20 | [La Niña Watch issued by the Climate Prediction Center](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68374-la-nina-watch-issued-by-the-climate-prediction-center.md) | +0.2% | -5.9% |
| CORN | 2022-08-30 | [WMO predicts first “triple-dip” La Niña of the century](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39961-wmo-predicts-first-triple-dip-la-nina-of-the-century.md) | -3.3% | -4.2% |
| SOY | 2025-08-19 | [El Niño and La Niña affect grain production in Goiás and the Federal District - Cultivar Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23242-el-nino-and-la-nina-affect-grain-production-in-goias-and-the-federal-district.md) | +0.5% | +2.8% |
| SOY | 2020-10-23 | [The Rise of El Niño and La Niña \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50568-the-rise-of-el-nino-and-la-nina-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -2.0% | +9.7% |
| SOY | 2025-06-19 | [Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts \| CRUCIAL](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24122-five-tips-for-making-the-most-of-el-nino-and-la-nina-forecasts-crucial.md) | -4.8% | -4.4% |

## Sources

- usclivar.org: https://usclivar.org/research-highlights/predicting-duration-el-nino-and-la-nina-events-multiyear-lead-time

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.