# El Niño can help predict cacao harvests

> New research in Scientific Reports finds that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle predicts cacao harvests up to two years ahead. The method pairs machine learning with farmer-level yield data and could also apply to coffee and olives.

- Date: 2021-04-29 · published 2021-04-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/47527-el-nino-can-help-predict-cacao-harvests
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Better long-range crop forecasts reduce uncertainty for tropical tree crops, but the study has no immediate effect on feed commodity supply or prices.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-01-17 | [How technology is helping farmers predict and prepare for El Niño \| PreventionWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61023-how-technology-is-helping-farmers-predict-and-prepare-for-el-nino-preventionweb.md) | +0.7% | +2.5% |
| CORN | 2026-07-01 | [WMO: Prepare for El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18729-wmo-prepare-for-el-nino.md) | +3.0% | +5.1% |
| CORN | 2017-07-11 | [How Africa can prepare against the next El Niño and why - Sub-Saharan Africa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69879-how-africa-can-prepare-against-the-next-el-nino-and-why-sub-saharan-africa.md) | -4.3% | -4.6% |
| CORN | 2025-12-03 | [WMO Update predicts weak La Niña](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21414-wmo-update-predicts-weak-la-nina.md) | +0.7% | -0.4% |
| CORN | 2019-05-02 | [Agroclimatic information helps prepare for El Niño in Central America](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59010-agroclimatic-information-helps-prepare-for-el-nino-in-central-america.md) | -0.5% | +9.7% |
| SOY | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | -0.8% | -6.2% |
| SOY | 2019-01-17 | [How technology is helping farmers predict and prepare for El Niño \| PreventionWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61023-how-technology-is-helping-farmers-predict-and-prepare-for-el-nino-preventionweb.md) | +2.4% | +1.0% |
| SOY | 2026-07-01 | [WMO: Prepare for El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18729-wmo-prepare-for-el-nino.md) | +7.0% | +5.5% |

## Sources

- alliancebioversityciat.org: https://alliancebioversityciat.org/stories/el-nino-can-help-predict-cacao-harvests-2-years-advance

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.