# El Niño–Southern Oscillation likely neutral for southern hemisphere winter

> Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says ENSO remains neutral, with no sign of El Niño or La Niña developing. Models indicate neutral conditions will last at least until September, and the Southern Oscillation Index has returned to neutral levels.

- Date: 2021-04-27 · published 2021-04-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/47526-el-nino-southern-oscillation-likely-neutral-for-southern-hemisphere-winter
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Neutral ENSO through southern winter removes a major source of drought or flood risk for Australian and South American crops. That is a mild bearish influence on weather-driven grain prices.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-07-27 | [Does the El Niño Southern Oscillation Actually Matter for Food Security? – State of the Planet](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63941-does-the-el-nino-southern-oscillation-actually-matter-for-food-security-state.md) | +0.9% | -1.9% |
| CORN | 2022-02-01 | [La Niña Likely to Persist Until Early Southern Hemisphere Autumn](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42623-la-nina-likely-to-persist-until-early-southern-hemisphere-autumn.md) | +1.8% | +11.1% |
| CORN | 2018-09-10 | [New El Niño weather event likely this winter says WMO](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62950-new-el-nino-weather-event-likely-this-winter-says-wmo.md) | -3.5% | +1.4% |
| CORN | 2025-09-08 | [The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Drought Outlook in the United States \| September 8, 2025 \| Drought.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22788-the-el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-in-the-united-states.md) | -0.1% | +2.7% |
| CORN | 2018-10-06 | [How to prepare for an El Niño winter \| Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62472-how-to-prepare-for-an-el-nino-winter-climate-and-agriculture-in-the-southeast.md) | -0.3% | -0.4% |
| SOY | 2018-07-27 | [Does the El Niño Southern Oscillation Actually Matter for Food Security? – State of the Planet](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63941-does-the-el-nino-southern-oscillation-actually-matter-for-food-security-state.md) | +2.5% | -2.2% |
| SOY | 2022-02-01 | [La Niña Likely to Persist Until Early Southern Hemisphere Autumn](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42623-la-nina-likely-to-persist-until-early-southern-hemisphere-autumn.md) | +6.1% | +14.4% |
| SOY | 2024-03-27 | [Southern Hemisphere Harvest: Navigating Weather Patterns - ClimateAi](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31126-southern-hemisphere-harvest-navigating-weather-patterns-climateai.md) | -1.4% | -2.8% |

## Sources

- comunicaffe.com: https://www.comunicaffe.com/el-nino-southern-oscillation-likely-to-remain-neutral-for-southern-hemisphere-winter/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.