# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | May Climate Briefing: Neutral Conditions are Here

> The IRI reports that tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures are now within the ENSO-neutral range, with atmospheric indicators consistent with the end of La Niña. Model runs predict neutral conditions likely through August-October 2021.

- Date: 2021-05-26 · published 2021-05-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/46986-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-may-climate
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A persistent neutral outlook reduces the odds of weather-driven supply shocks from La Niña in key producing regions, which is mildly bearish for grain and oilseed prices. The effect is modest because the forecast is already widely expected.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-03-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 March Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60007-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-march-quick.md) | -0.3% | -3.4% |
| CORN | 2018-12-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 December Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61498-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-december.md) | -0.4% | +1.2% |
| CORN | 2025-07-10 | [Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23660-climate-prediction-center-sees-56-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-in-august.md) | -1.0% | -3.0% |
| CORN | 2025-12-11 | [La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21415-la-nina-to-fade-early-next-year-neutral-pacific-conditions-likely-u-s.md) | +0.5% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2020-01-23 | [Favourable growing conditions forecast for major ag regions - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54994-favourable-growing-conditions-forecast-for-major-ag-regions-grainews.md) | -1.0% | -1.5% |
| SOY | 2019-03-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 March Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60007-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-march-quick.md) | +0.1% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2018-12-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 December Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61498-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-december.md) | -4.2% | +0.0% |
| SOY | 2025-07-10 | [Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23660-climate-prediction-center-sees-56-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-in-august.md) | +0.1% | -5.0% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/may-climate-briefing-neutral-conditions-are-here/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.