# China expected to stop phosphate exports,  food production prices set to rise - ABC News

> China's National Development and Reform Commission is moving to restrict phosphate fertiliser production and exports until mid-2022. Chinese producers are expected to stop exporting for more than six months. Australia sourced 65% of its MAP from China last year, and US duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphates had already doubled prices over the past year.

- Date: 2021-10-01 · published 2021-10-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region China · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4698-china-expected-to-stop-phosphate-exports-food-production-prices-set-to-rise-abc
- Commodities: [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Phosphate Rock](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PHOSROCK.md)

## Why it matters

Restricting Chinese exports removes a major share of global phosphate supply during Australia's planting season, which keeps phosphate prices high and raises food production costs.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- PHOSROCK: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2021-10-01 | 1 | +4.2% | 9.0 | Reports on 2021-10-01 that China's NDRC will restrict phosphate production and exports until mid-2022 point to a direct supply shock to the largest phosphate exporter, which fits the sharp one-day DAP rise. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2026-01-06 | [Phosphate fertilizer prices expected to stay high in 2026 as China export limits persist - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20977-phosphate-fertilizer-prices-expected-to-stay-high-in-2026-as-china-export.md) | 0.0% | -0.4% |
| DAP | 2026-10-21 | [China's phosphate rock market is affected by the ban on phosphate fertilizer exports, affecting both prices and supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/684-china-s-phosphate-rock-market-is-affected-by-the-ban-on-phosphate-fertilizer.md) | 0.0% | — |
| DAP | 2022-08-11 | [China extends phosphate export restrictions \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39978-china-extends-phosphate-export-restrictions-the-western-producer.md) | +0.9% | +2.4% |
| DAP | 2025-10-30 | [Global Phosphate Supply Constraints Expected to Keep Prices Elevated — Louisiana Farm Bureau News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22719-global-phosphate-supply-constraints-expected-to-keep-prices-elevated-louisiana.md) | -4.4% | -6.1% |
| DAP | 2025-10-25 | [Fertiliser Prices Set to Surge as China Suspends Exports - PLY INSIGHT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9556-fertiliser-prices-set-to-surge-as-china-suspends-exports-ply-insight.md) | -4.5% | -6.1% |

## Sources

- abc.net.au: https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-10-01/china-expected-to-stop-phosphate-exports/100505026

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.