# Palm oil prices on roller coaster amid bullish outlook but soft fundamentals | Mysteel

> Dalian palm oil futures climbed nearly 10% in January 2026, hitting 9,396 yuan per tonne on Jan 29 before falling below 9,000 yuan in early February. The rally was driven by expectations around US biodiesel demand, macro policy, and energy prices. Analysts note a shift in the Fed's tone and a sharp crude decline are now weighing on prices.

- Date: 2026-02-04 · published 2026-02-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region China · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4665-palm-oil-prices-on-roller-coaster-amid-bullish-outlook-but-soft-fundamentals
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Falling crude and a less dovish Fed reduce palm's biofuel appeal and speculative support, pressuring prices. Persistently weak domestic basis signals soft physical demand, so volatility is likely to stay high.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼
- PALMOIL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2022-07-01 | [Palm oil falls 4% on recession fears, higher supply outlook - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6225-palm-oil-falls-4-on-recession-fears-higher-supply-outlook-markets-business.md) | -24.3% | -29.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2025-04-07 | [Palm and soybean oil prices fell by 4.4-5.9% amid a 14.5% drop in oil prices in two days](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9630-palm-and-soybean-oil-prices-fell-by-4-4-5-9-amid-a-14-5-drop-in-oil-prices-in.md) | -2.5% | -6.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2025-04-07 | [Palm and Soy Oil Prices Drop as Oil Prices Decline](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9631-palm-and-soy-oil-prices-drop-as-oil-prices-decline.md) | -2.5% | -6.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2020-03-13 | [Crude oil sell-offs see prices for palm oil decline \| Analysis & Features \| The Grocer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54237-crude-oil-sell-offs-see-prices-for-palm-oil-decline-analysis-and-features-the.md) | -2.8% | -3.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2020-03-11 | [Ag Markets Feel Pinch As Oil Prices Plunge - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54223-ag-markets-feel-pinch-as-oil-prices-plunge-proag.md) | -3.6% | -5.9% |
| WTI | 2021-04-21 | [Oil prices drop as India’s COVID-19 surge dents demand outlook \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47759-oil-prices-drop-as-india-s-covid-19-surge-dents-demand-outlook-reuters.md) | +0.7% | +4.7% |
| WTI | 2019-12-10 | [Commodities Outlook: A little less fundamental, a little more action \| reports \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55632-commodities-outlook-a-little-less-fundamental-a-little-more-action-reports-ing.md) | +2.1% | +6.3% |
| WTI | 2016-12-23 | [C$ hits a 5-week low on soft data, lower oil prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73697-c-hits-a-5-week-low-on-soft-data-lower-oil-prices.md) | +2.8% | +0.7% |

## Sources

- mysteel.net: https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5112501-palm-oil-prices-on-roller-coaster-amid-bullish-outlook-but-soft-fundamentals

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.