# Supply cut lights price fuse

> Fonterra cut its 2016/17 season milk supply forecast to minus 7% after a very wet spring cut October collections in Waikato by 14%. The GDT auction index rose 11.4%, with whole milk powder up 19.8% as Chinese buyers competed for supply.

- Date: 2016-11-03 · published 2016-11-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region New Zealand · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4648-supply-cut-lights-price-fuse
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp New Zealand supply shortfall in the world's largest tradable WMP supplier tightens global dairy supply and lifts prices, improving farmgate payout expectations.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2016-11-03 | 1 | +11.9% | 9.8 | Fonterra's supply forecast cut to -7% after wet weather cut Waikato October collections by 14%, combined with Chinese buying at GDT, tightened global supply and supported dairy prices. |
| MILK | 2016-11-07 | 5 | +14.8% | 3.9 | A 14% drop in Waikato October collections and a lower Fonterra forecast, with Chinese buyers competing, tightened export supply and boosted global prices. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2018-01-04 | [GDT lift boosts milk price forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7149-gdt-lift-boosts-milk-price-forecast.md) | -10.8% | -12.3% |
| MILK | 2026-08-04 | [Econ Roundup: Demand Supports Milk Prices, Feed Costs Rising - NMPF](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4737-econ-roundup-demand-supports-milk-prices-feed-costs-rising-nmpf.md) | +6.8% | +6.4% |
| MILK | 2018-01-02 | [Dairy prices lift as milk volumes tighten](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5207-dairy-prices-lift-as-milk-volumes-tighten.md) | -10.1% | -9.9% |
| MILK | 2018-01-03 | [Milk price forecast turns a corner](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5206-milk-price-forecast-turns-a-corner.md) | -10.5% | -13.1% |
| MILK | 2016-11-01 | [Milk price surges to highest point in 2 years - NZ Herald](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4649-milk-price-surges-to-highest-point-in-2-years-nz-herald.md) | +14.8% | +13.4% |

## Sources

- farmersweekly.co.nz: https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/news/supply-cut-lights-price-fuse/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.