# February '25 Aussie Farmer Fertilizer Newsletter - Urea

> StoneX's Josh Linville says urea prices should rally over the next month or two. Chinese urea exports remain absent, about 5M tonnes a year, and Iranian production is offline, removing roughly 4.8M tonnes of annual exports. European output is still about 75% of normal.

- Date: 2025-02-03 · published 2025-02-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4642-february-25-aussie-farmer-fertilizer-newsletter-urea
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Missing Chinese and Iranian supply plus European shortfalls tighten the global urea balance ahead of spring buying, which supports higher urea prices. Large Chinese stockpiles are a risk that could cap the rally.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2025-02-07 | 5 | +10.5% | 2.9 | Absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output (~4.8 Mt/yr) and European output at ~75% of normal point to a supply-driven rally in the next month or two. |
| UREA | 2025-02-03 | 1 | +7.5% | 9.9 | Published 2025-02-03, it highlights absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output and reduced European production, a supply-tightness narrative supporting a bullish repricing. |
| UREA | 2025-02-06 | 5 | +10.1% | 2.9 | Absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output and reduced European production constrain supply, supporting the bullish outlook and price momentum. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2023-12-26 | [January '24 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32634-january-24-farmer-fertilizer-focus-urea.md) | -1.6% | +0.2% |
| UREA | 2024-02-28 | [March '24 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphate](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4295-march-24-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphate.md) | +7.6% | +9.1% |
| UREA | 2024-02-05 | [Changes in international fertilizer prices from January 26 - February 2.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32007-changes-in-international-fertilizer-prices-from-january-26-february-2.md) | +1.4% | +11.5% |
| UREA | 2022-03-02 | [Waive fertilizer dumping duties, corn farmers ask](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42257-waive-fertilizer-dumping-duties-corn-farmers-ask.md) | +22.0% | +20.9% |
| UREA | 2021-10-11 | [Brazilian farmers also see fertilizer costs double](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44891-brazilian-farmers-also-see-fertilizer-costs-double.md) | +0.3% | +6.4% |

## Sources

- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/february-25-aussie-farmer-fertilizer-newsletter---urea-1550729/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.