# Developing Situation: Futures Spike, Retail Catch-Up, and Farmer Fallout from Middle East Fertilizer Supply Squeeze

> Restricted trade through the Strait of Hormuz after the start of a US-Iran war has pushed fertilizer futures sharply higher. CBOT-traded Gulf urea May 2026 closed at $681/ton on March 19, up $276 (68%) since end of February, while Gulf DAP rose about 6%.

- Date: 2026-03-23 · published 2026-03-23T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Middle East · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4628-developing-situation-futures-spike-retail-catch-up-and-farmer-fallout-from
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

Higher nitrogen and phosphate costs ahead of planting raise the risk of reduced corn acreage and tighter farm margins, which can shift demand for feed grains and affect feed input costs.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- CORN: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-01-26 | [Fertilizer Prices Stay Elevated Despite Improving Global Supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20976-fertilizer-prices-stay-elevated-despite-improving-global-supply.md) | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| CORN | 2025-07-02 | [Farmers Can't Catch a Break: Fertilizer Prices, Compared to Corn Prices, Are Now Some of the Worst in History - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23691-farmers-can-t-catch-a-break-fertilizer-prices-compared-to-corn-prices-are-now.md) | -3.1% | -4.1% |
| CORN | 2026-05-07 | [Middle East fuel shock exacerbates rising US ag export costs \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16860-middle-east-fuel-shock-exacerbates-rising-us-ag-export-costs-s-and-p-global.md) | +3.3% | -2.4% |
| CORN | 2026-03-09 | [Grains Retreat Following Energies, See Farmer Selling: Cattle Plunge - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10387-grains-retreat-following-energies-see-farmer-selling-cattle-plunge-agweb.md) | +0.9% | +1.7% |
| CORN | 2020-05-29 | [CME update: lean hog futures slide amid diplomatic tensions between the US and China
						 \| The Pig Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53265-cme-update-lean-hog-futures-slide-amid-diplomatic-tensions-between-the-us-and.md) | +1.0% | -0.9% |
| WTI | 2026-03-25 | [Oil settles up nearly 6% as investors fear further Middle East escalation \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20343-oil-settles-up-nearly-6-as-investors-fear-further-middle-east-escalation-reuters.md) | +10.2% | +1.3% |
| WTI | 2024-10-22 | [Oil settles up 2% as Middle East war rages and supplies tighten](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28035-oil-settles-up-2-as-middle-east-war-rages-and-supplies-tighten.md) | -4.8% | -2.3% |
| WTI | 2024-10-08 | [CO Futures Close Higher Amid Middle East Tensions, Crude Oil Rally – MPOC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7765-co-futures-close-higher-amid-middle-east-tensions-crude-oil-rally-mpoc.md) | -2.9% | -7.5% |

## Sources

- ncga.com: https://www.ncga.com/stay-informed/media/the-corn-economy/article/2026/03/developing-situation-futures-spike-retail-catch-up-and-farmer-fallout-from-middle-east-fertilizer-supply-squeeze

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.