# Black Sea wheat price surges as dry weather slashes crop outlooks - Fastmarkets

> Black Sea wheat prices surged after two Russian analytical agencies, Ikar and Prozerno, cut their Russian wheat production forecasts to around 77 million mt. Russian 12.5% offers rose at least $7/mt to $255/mt FOB. Ukrainian wheat bids also climbed.

- Date: 2021-07-29 · published 2021-07-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Black Sea · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/46099-black-sea-wheat-price-surges-as-dry-weather-slashes-crop-outlooks-fastmarkets
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Russia is the largest wheat exporter, and private crop downgrades below the USDA's 85 million mt estimate imply tighter export availability and higher global wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-05-22 | [Black Sea, Canadian wheat prices surge on weather, crop fears \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30289-black-sea-canadian-wheat-prices-surge-on-weather-crop-fears-s-and-p-global.md) | -7.4% | -10.9% |
| WHEAT | 2020-04-04 | [Wheat Market Stabilizes, as the Black Sea Weather Remains Dry](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53686-wheat-market-stabilizes-as-the-black-sea-weather-remains-dry.md) | +2.3% | +1.8% |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-07 | [$7 wheat is back as Plains drought slashes crop prospects](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19314-7-wheat-is-back-as-plains-drought-slashes-crop-prospects.md) | +3.6% | -0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2017-06-28 | [Wheat prices firm on worries dry weather could hit U.S. crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9718-wheat-prices-firm-on-worries-dry-weather-could-hit-u-s-crops.md) | +3.2% | -2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2019-06-14 | [Feed weekly outlook: Grain prices strong as dry weather persists - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58641-feed-weekly-outlook-grain-prices-strong-as-dry-weather-persists-grainews.md) | -6.0% | -8.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-05-22 | [Black Sea, Canadian wheat prices surge on weather, crop fears \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30289-black-sea-canadian-wheat-prices-surge-on-weather-crop-fears-s-and-p-global.md) | +2.6% | -15.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-04-04 | [Wheat Market Stabilizes, as the Black Sea Weather Remains Dry](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53686-wheat-market-stabilizes-as-the-black-sea-weather-remains-dry.md) | +4.7% | +2.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-07 | [$7 wheat is back as Plains drought slashes crop prospects](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19314-7-wheat-is-back-as-plains-drought-slashes-crop-prospects.md) | +5.7% | -8.2% |

## Sources

- fastmarkets.com: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/black-sea-wheat-price-surges-as-dry-weather-slashes-crop-outlooks/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.