# Adverse weather? Blame the El Niño cycle

> Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr links 2021 weather extremes, including South American dryness, northern Plains drought and European floods, to El Niño and La Niña patterns. La Niña has ended and neutral conditions prevail, but La Niña is expected to return this fall. USDA put the US winter wheat yield at a near-record 53.6 bushels per acre.

- Date: 2021-07-20 · published 2021-07-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/45917-adverse-weather-blame-the-el-nino-cycle
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A likely return of La Niña points to risks for South American and US crops into 2022, supporting forward feed grain prices. Strong US winter wheat yields add supply that partly offsets this.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-07-25 | [A change in the weather](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63939-a-change-in-the-weather.md) | +3.5% | +2.0% |
| CORN | 2018-09-10 | [New El Niño weather event likely this winter says WMO](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62950-new-el-nino-weather-event-likely-this-winter-says-wmo.md) | -3.5% | +1.4% |
| CORN | 2019-10-16 | [Crop Weather -- After the Snow](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56420-crop-weather-after-the-snow.md) | -1.2% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2023-04-20 | [El Niño could bring severe weather, impacting U.S. grain \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36315-el-nino-could-bring-severe-weather-impacting-u-s-grain-feed-and-grain.md) | -1.0% | -9.9% |
| CORN | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | +0.5% | +1.9% |
| SOY | 2018-07-25 | [A change in the weather](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63939-a-change-in-the-weather.md) | +5.3% | +1.9% |
| SOY | 2019-10-16 | [Crop Weather -- After the Snow](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56420-crop-weather-after-the-snow.md) | +0.0% | -3.0% |
| SOY | 2023-04-20 | [El Niño could bring severe weather, impacting U.S. grain \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36315-el-nino-could-bring-severe-weather-impacting-u-s-grain-feed-and-grain.md) | -4.7% | -11.3% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/adverse-weather-blame-the-el-ni-o-cycle

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.