# CPO Prices to Stay Firm Above RM4,600 (USD1,133) on Tightening Supply and Geopolitical Disruptions — PalmPulse

> The MPOC expects CPO prices to stay above RM4,600 per tonne as supply tightens into the fourth quarter. NOAA gives a 90% likelihood of El Niño developing between September and November, potentially among the strongest on record. India is expected to raise palm imports amid Black Sea sunflower oil disruptions.

- Date: 2026-09-03 · published 2026-09-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Malaysia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4535-cpo-prices-to-stay-firm-above-rm4-600-usd1-133-on-tightening-supply-and
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

Seasonal production decline in Q4 and El Niño risk to 2027 output support palm prices. Redirected Indian import demand toward palm adds further upward pressure.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2026-09-08 | 5 | +5.6% | 3.0 | NOAA's 90% El Niño probability signals lower future palm yields and tighter Q4 supply, and expected higher Indian imports add demand, which fuels bullish sentiment. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-08 | [Concerns about Supply Disruptions Due to the El Nino Phenomenon and Expectations of Increased Demand Pushing Up Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33280-concerns-about-supply-disruptions-due-to-the-el-nino-phenomenon-and.md) | +2.5% | +0.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-10-08 | [Palm Oil Traders Eye Price Rally as Weather and Policy Risks Tighten Supply Outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17176-palm-oil-traders-eye-price-rally-as-weather-and-policy-risks-tighten-supply.md) | +0.5% | -0.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-30 | [El Niño ahead: Potential disruption to fishmeal supply in 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33069-el-nino-ahead-potential-disruption-to-fishmeal-supply-in-2024.md) | -2.6% | -2.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2020-12-03 | [Low production to support CPO prices \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49758-low-production-to-support-cpo-prices-the-star.md) | +1.0% | +5.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-10-31 | [IOI Group: Malaysia sees La Nina pushing CPO prices above RM3,000/tonne](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68564-ioi-group-malaysia-sees-la-nina-pushing-cpo-prices-above-rm3-000-tonne.md) | +1.2% | -0.2% |
| SBO | 2026-08-28 | [Soybean oil prices rose due to positive supply and demand prospects.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10972-soybean-oil-prices-rose-due-to-positive-supply-and-demand-prospects.md) | +6.9% | +0.6% |
| SBO | 2023-03-01 | [Palm oil clocks third weekly climb on tight supply worries](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37449-palm-oil-clocks-third-weekly-climb-on-tight-supply-worries.md) | -0.6% | -7.3% |
| SBO | 2020-11-11 | [Global Markets: Oilseeds – Lower Sunflower Seed Production in Ukraine, Russia Tightens Global Supplies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50276-global-markets-oilseeds-lower-sunflower-seed-production-in-ukraine-russia.md) | +4.0% | +7.5% |

## Sources

- palmpulse.org: https://palmpulse.org/issue-40/054k5a36ntni302bvhydil9zmiehpn-32p4t-m887b-6t8pb-wr42b-jnt77-9tz3t-jd2ws

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.