# December Rate Hike Odds Slip to 70% as Gold Falls Below $4K

> Kalshi odds of a December Fed rate hike fell from 83% to 70% in three days as the Nasdaq lost 4.2%. Spot gold closed below $4,000, its lowest close since October 2025, and silver fell to $49. Two Fed presidents called for more hikes on the same day.

- Date: 2026-10-31 · published 2026-11-01T06:15:06.746Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4518-december-rate-hike-odds-slip-to-70-as-gold-falls-below-4k
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

Falling tech stocks rather than a dovish Fed drove the drop in hike odds, and metals sold off with broader risk assets. Continued rate-hike expectations keep the dollar supported and commodity prices under pressure.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2018-11-10 | [Gold falls to one-month low as Fed affirms rate-hiking stance](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61962-gold-falls-to-one-month-low-as-fed-affirms-rate-hiking-stance.md) | -0.4% | -0.2% |
| DXY | 2022-10-28 | [Gold down 1% as dollar, yields rise on Fed rate-hike bets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39036-gold-down-1-as-dollar-yields-rise-on-fed-rate-hike-bets.md) | +1.2% | -2.4% |
| DXY | 2024-12-18 | [Gold slides below $2,600 as Fed signals two rate cuts in 2025](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26855-gold-slides-below-2-600-as-fed-signals-two-rate-cuts-in-2025.md) | +0.7% | +1.5% |
| DXY | 2019-07-31 | [Gold falls as Fed rate outlook disappoints](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58013-gold-falls-as-fed-rate-outlook-disappoints.md) | +0.9% | +1.8% |
| DXY | 2019-08-01 | [Gold prices slip to two-week low as US Fed dashes hopes of more rate cuts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57513-gold-prices-slip-to-two-week-low-as-us-fed-dashes-hopes-of-more-rate-cuts.md) | +1.1% | +2.1% |

## Sources

- basecamp.markets: https://basecamp.markets/december-rate-hike-odds/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.