# AgriMarketing.com - Fertilizer Prices Heading Toward Record Highs Due To Series Of Black Swan Events

> Fertilizer prices are heading toward record highs after a series of supply shocks, including Hurricane Ida, European production slowdowns and China's phosphate export ban. StoneX's Josh Linville says urea has not yet reached 2008 highs, but the market is more supply-driven than in 2008. Concerns are growing that prices could surpass 2008 levels.

- Date: 2021-09-29 · published 2021-09-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Global · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/45026-agrimarketing-com-fertilizer-prices-heading-toward-record-highs-due-to-series
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

A supply-driven shock in urea and phosphate threatens to raise production costs and reduce fertilizer application for the 2022 season. That could lift grain and feed prices.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2021-10-01 | 5 | +28.9% | 7.1 | Describes a series of supply shocks (Ida, European slowdowns, China export curbs) pushing fertilizer toward record highs, reinforcing bullish sentiment. |
| UREA | 2021-09-30 | 1 | +23.9% | 15.3 | A series of supply shocks (Ida, European slowdowns, China export curbs) pushed fertilizer toward record highs, driving panic buying and sentiment. |
| DAP | 2021-09-30 | 1 | +4.2% | 9.1 | Cites China's export ban together with Hurricane Ida and European slowdowns as stacked supply shocks, which fed bullish sentiment in fertilizer including DAP. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2025-02-05 | [Urea, UAN32 lead fertilizer prices higher; tariffs could boost potash prices - AgriAmerica](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25958-urea-uan32-lead-fertilizer-prices-higher-tariffs-could-boost-potash-prices.md) | +2.4% | -1.5% |
| UREA | 2021-11-22 | [Fertilizer Extends Rally With Some Prices Soaring Nearly 60% With More Costly Natural Gas - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8141-fertilizer-extends-rally-with-some-prices-soaring-nearly-60-with-more-costly.md) | +6.4% | -1.2% |
| UREA | 2025-08-28 | [Sticky input prices and short supplies: What's keeping fertilizer costs high? - RealAgriculture](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23627-sticky-input-prices-and-short-supplies-what-s-keeping-fertilizer-costs-high.md) | -7.5% | -8.9% |
| UREA | 2024-09-30 | [Fertilizer Prices Steady Amid Global Developments \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5247-fertilizer-prices-steady-amid-global-developments-cz-app.md) | +5.3% | +4.4% |
| UREA | 2021-02-13 | [High fertilizer prices likely to climb more - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12875-high-fertilizer-prices-likely-to-climb-more-grainews.md) | +1.2% | +13.6% |
| DAP | 2020-10-01 | [U.S. fertilizer prices surge to decade high](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50574-u-s-fertilizer-prices-surge-to-decade-high.md) | +0.7% | +0.7% |
| DAP | 2025-08-28 | [Sticky input prices and short supplies: What's keeping fertilizer costs high? - RealAgriculture](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23627-sticky-input-prices-and-short-supplies-what-s-keeping-fertilizer-costs-high.md) | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| DAP | 2025-09-08 | [Fertilizer Market Core Dynamics Briefing – August to Early September 2025](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22777-fertilizer-market-core-dynamics-briefing-august-to-early-september-2025.md) | -0.3% | -3.5% |

## Sources

- agrimarketing.com: https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/138077

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.