# 'Perfect storm' causes fertilizer price spike - MarketsFarm

> Fertilizer prices spiked after Hurricane Ida shut nitrogen plants on the US Gulf Coast and high European gas prices forced Yara and CF Industries to curtail output. Sanctions on Belarus potash, Chinese production and export limits, and supply chain disruptions added to the shortage. CRU analysts say the tightness may last past the new year.

- Date: 2021-09-27 · published 2021-09-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/45025-perfect-storm-causes-fertilizer-price-spike-marketsfarm
- Commodities: [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Multiple simultaneous supply losses in nitrogen, phosphate and potash raise input costs for grain and feed producers and could cut 2022 application rates. The resulting tightness supports fertilizer and grain prices.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- NATGAS: bullish ▲
- POTASH: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2021-10-01 | 5 | +28.9% | 7.1 | Hurricane Ida plant shutdowns, European curtailments by Yara and CF due to gas costs, and export limits combined to tighten nitrogen supply sharply. |
| UREA | 2021-09-30 | 1 | +23.9% | 15.3 | Ida-related nitrogen plant shutdowns plus European curtailments by Yara and CF from high gas costs, and Chinese export limits, created a multi-source supply shortage lasting past the new year. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2022-03-22 | [Fertilizer prices are at record highs. Here's what that means](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5512-fertilizer-prices-are-at-record-highs-here-s-what-that-means.md) | +14.1% | +51.1% |
| NATGAS | 2022-03-17 | [Russian gas export ban could see big fertilizer price hike \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42214-russian-gas-export-ban-could-see-big-fertilizer-price-hike-the-western-producer.md) | +11.3% | +45.0% |
| NATGAS | 2022-08-24 | ['New shock' for European markets as gas price spike fuels inflation fears \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40209-new-shock-for-european-markets-as-gas-price-spike-fuels-inflation-fears-reuters.md) | -4.2% | -16.7% |
| NATGAS | 2022-10-04 | [How the Russia-Ukraine War Fueled Record Fertilizer Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39051-how-the-russia-ukraine-war-fueled-record-fertilizer-prices.md) | +5.0% | -6.5% |
| NATGAS | 2024-11-06 | [Geopolitics creates volatility in global fertiliser markets - Farmers Weekly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27323-geopolitics-creates-volatility-in-global-fertiliser-markets-farmers-weekly.md) | +13.6% | +39.1% |
| UREA | 2026-04-13 | [War Stresses Global Fertilizer Markets \| Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19637-war-stresses-global-fertilizer-markets-rabobank.md) | +1.2% | -13.1% |
| UREA | 2025-06-03 | [Can New Sanctions Spark a Fertilizer Price Shock?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4336-can-new-sanctions-spark-a-fertilizer-price-shock.md) | +0.5% | +10.8% |
| UREA | 2022-04-23 | [Fertilizer Prices Reach All-Time Highs Amid Turbulent Market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42159-fertilizer-prices-reach-all-time-highs-amid-turbulent-market.md) | -18.1% | -19.0% |

## Sources

- marketsfarm.com: https://marketsfarm.com/perfect-storm-causes-fertilizer-price-spike/
- agcanada.com: https://www.agcanada.com/daily/perfect-storm-causes-fertilizer-price-spikes

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.