# La Nina weather 70% likely to develop in Aug-Oct, says US forecaster | Reuters

> A US forecaster put the chance of La Niña developing in August to October 2024 at 70%. Wet weather could lift rice and palm oil yields in Southeast Asia, and a normal Indian monsoon could support production, after dry spells in some areas during the now-dissipated El Niño.

- Date: 2024-07-11 · published 2024-07-11T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Asia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4456-la-nina-weather-70-likely-to-develop-in-aug-oct-says-us-forecaster-reuters
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Favorable rainfall in Southeast Asia and India points to larger rice and palm oil supplies, which is bearish for those prices over the coming season.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bearish ▼
- PALMOIL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2025-04-15 | [India forecasts above average monsoon rains in boost to crop output, economy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25056-india-forecasts-above-average-monsoon-rains-in-boost-to-crop-output-economy.md) | -3.0% | -12.3% |
| RICE | 2024-09-01 | [Sri Lanka on La Niña watch with warning for 2025 Maha rice crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28681-sri-lanka-on-la-nina-watch-with-warning-for-2025-maha-rice-crop.md) | -0.5% | +1.9% |
| RICE | 2020-08-18 | [India's basmati rice production to be higher than last year's level due to monsoon boost - The Economic Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51562-india-s-basmati-rice-production-to-be-higher-than-last-year-s-level-due-to.md) | +2.4% | +1.5% |
| RICE | 2017-05-24 | [Basmati exporters expect higher output on good monsoon forecast \| Commodity - Food & Edible Oils - Business Standard](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70983-basmati-exporters-expect-higher-output-on-good-monsoon-forecast-commodity-food.md) | +2.0% | +2.4% |
| RICE | 2020-01-16 | [600,000 hectares of rice planted earlier in Vietnam to avoid risk of salinity intrusion from the 2019 El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54996-600-000-hectares-of-rice-planted-earlier-in-vietnam-to-avoid-risk-of-salinity.md) | +2.0% | -0.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2016-12-29 | [Palm oil meeting in Bali to focus on weather \| The ASEAN Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73573-palm-oil-meeting-in-bali-to-focus-on-weather-the-asean-post.md) | -1.2% | -0.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-28 | [Malaysia 2024 palm oil output to rise despite El Nino - govt \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34218-malaysia-2024-palm-oil-output-to-rise-despite-el-nino-govt-reuters.md) | -2.3% | -3.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-11-01 | [Weather a key issue as palm oil industry gathers in Bali \| FMT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68091-weather-a-key-issue-as-palm-oil-industry-gathers-in-bali-fmt.md) | +1.5% | -0.3% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/la-nina-weather-70-likely-develop-aug-oct-says-us-forecaster-2024-07-11/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.