# Fertilizer Markets Surge Following Escalation in the Middle East - RFD

> Fertilizer prices jumped after US military strikes involving Iran, with New Orleans urea physical prices up about $70/t and second-half March values reportedly climbing to about $550. Market participants expect UAN, anhydrous ammonia and phosphate prices to follow urea higher if tensions persist.

- Date: 2026-03-03 · published 2026-03-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4435-fertilizer-markets-surge-following-escalation-in-the-middle-east-rfd
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [TSP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/TSP.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Broad nitrogen and phosphate price increases ahead of planting raise input costs for US crop producers, supporting higher feed-grain costs and tightening farm affordability.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- TSP: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-03-03 | 5 | +28.3% | 5.3 | Physical urea at New Orleans rose about $70/t with second-half March values near $550, confirming the supply-shock repricing. |
| DAP | 2026-03-02 | 1 | +2.9% | 7.4 | Fertilizer price surge on Middle East escalation (US strikes involving Iran) lifted urea and was expected to pull phosphates like DAP higher via sentiment and Gulf supply-risk, but it is dated one day after the move window so it likely reflects the same geopolitical shock rather than a clean cause. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-03-05 | [Fertiliser costs are soaring amid war in the Middle East. Will your grocery bill follow?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6256-fertiliser-costs-are-soaring-amid-war-in-the-middle-east-will-your-grocery-bill.md) | +3.0% | +20.1% |
| UREA | 2026-10-02 | [Markets Ablaze: Gas & LNG Prices Surge as Middle East Conflict Escalates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17233-markets-ablaze-gas-and-lng-prices-surge-as-middle-east-conflict-escalates.md) | -1.4% | +1.1% |
| UREA | 2025-06-16 | [Middle East conflict throws more uncertainty into global fertilizer markets \| Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24537-middle-east-conflict-throws-more-uncertainty-into-global-fertilizer-markets.md) | +3.6% | +14.9% |
| UREA | 2025-06-24 | [How Middle East Strikes Sent Fertilizer Prices Soaring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24538-how-middle-east-strikes-sent-fertilizer-prices-soaring.md) | +1.0% | +11.7% |
| UREA | 2025-06-23 | [Market Talks: Conflict in the Middle East and the outlook for the Brazilian fertilizer market in the 2025-26 crop cycle  \| Argus Media](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24149-market-talks-conflict-in-the-middle-east-and-the-outlook-for-the-brazilian.md) | +1.4% | +12.4% |
| DAP | 2023-02-20 | [World’s fertilizer market in turmoil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37253-world-s-fertilizer-market-in-turmoil.md) | -5.5% | -1.0% |
| DAP | 2026-04-21 | [Global fertiliser market facing prolonged period of strain from Middle East disruption – industry report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20020-global-fertiliser-market-facing-prolonged-period-of-strain-from-middle-east.md) | +0.3% | +6.9% |
| DAP | 2026-10-05 | [Middle East bottlenecks reshape global fertiliser market - Mining.com.au](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17037-middle-east-bottlenecks-reshape-global-fertiliser-market-mining-com-au.md) | 0.0% | 0.0% |

## Sources

- rfdtv.com: https://www.rfdtv.com/fertilizer-markets-surge-following-escalation-in-the-middle-east

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.