# Soy yield downgrade bucks the bears

> USDA's November WASDE unexpectedly cut the US soybean yield to 51.2 bpa, bringing the crop to 4.425 billion bushels. Soybean prices jumped about 2.5% after the report, and tight soymeal stocks were cited as a factor.

- Date: 2021-11-09 · published 2021-11-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/44001-soy-yield-downgrade-bucks-the-bears
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

The yield surprise tightens soybean and soymeal supplies for feed users, which supports higher prices despite weaker Chinese import expectations.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBM | 2021-11-09 | 1 | +2.5% | 3.3 | The Nov 9 WASDE surprise cut to US soybean yield (51.2 bpa) lifted soybeans about 2.5% and cited tight soymeal stocks, a direct supply-driven cause of the meal rally on that day. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2023-10-13 | [Soybeans Soar on USDA WASDE Bullish Yield and Stocks Data, Grains Follow](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33585-soybeans-soar-on-usda-wasde-bullish-yield-and-stocks-data-grains-follow.md) | +2.0% | +2.9% |
| SOY | 2025-08-14 | [Soybeans rise further after US production downgrade — TradingView News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12448-soybeans-rise-further-after-us-production-downgrade-tradingview-news.md) | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2022-10-12 | [October WASDE: Soybeans rally on big yield cuts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39105-october-wasde-soybeans-rally-on-big-yield-cuts.md) | -0.3% | +4.9% |
| SOY | 2017-01-13 | [Does the soybean rally have legs?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72941-does-the-soybean-rally-have-legs.md) | +3.4% | +2.6% |
| SOY | 2025-05-14 | [Global Grains Rattled by Trade Deals and Yield Hurdles](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6682-global-grains-rattled-by-trade-deals-and-yield-hurdles.md) | -1.3% | -1.6% |
| SBM | 2023-10-13 | [Soybeans Soar on USDA WASDE Bullish Yield and Stocks Data, Grains Follow](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33585-soybeans-soar-on-usda-wasde-bullish-yield-and-stocks-data-grains-follow.md) | +7.9% | +16.7% |
| SBM | 2025-05-14 | [Global Grains Rattled by Trade Deals and Yield Hurdles](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6682-global-grains-rattled-by-trade-deals-and-yield-hurdles.md) | +1.5% | +2.5% |
| SBM | 2022-09-12 | [USDA Lowers Corn and Soybean Yields](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39551-usda-lowers-corn-and-soybean-yields.md) | -1.5% | -6.1% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/corn/soy-yield-downgrade-bucks-the-bears

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.