# Latest thoughts on Brazil (and EM) - BBH — Octa

> BBH strategists said Temer's presidency is in jeopardy after reports of compromising recordings, and that the pension reform vote has been suspended. The real came under heavy pressure, with BRL futures hitting limit moves.

- Date: 2017-05-18 · published 2017-05-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4361-latest-thoughts-on-brazil-and-em-bbh-octa
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

If Temer is forced out, reform stalls and the real is likely to weaken further, which lowers the dollar cost of Brazilian feed exports.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2017-05-18 | 1 | +9.1% | 12.4 | Same-day analysis tied the selloff to Temer's presidency being in jeopardy and the suspended pension reform vote, with BRL futures hitting limit moves, showing the political-risk repricing. |
| USDBRL | 2017-05-18 | 5 | +7.4% | 3.4 | Temer's presidency in jeopardy and suspended pension reform vote caused heavy BRL selling with futures hitting limit moves, a political risk-premium mechanism. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2024-11-29 | [Brazil's finance minister, Congress leaders seek to calm markets on tax change concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12460-brazil-s-finance-minister-congress-leaders-seek-to-calm-markets-on-tax-change.md) | +1.7% | +5.6% |
| USDBRL | 2021-07-07 | [Brazilian Real Stalls on Plans for Dividend Tax Hike, Finds Support on Data](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9911-brazilian-real-stalls-on-plans-for-dividend-tax-hike-finds-support-on-data.md) | -0.5% | +1.1% |
| USDBRL | 2024-11-28 | [(USD BRL) Brazil’s Real Drops to All-Time Low as Spending Cuts Fall Flat - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12461-usd-brl-brazil-s-real-drops-to-all-time-low-as-spending-cuts-fall-flat-bloomberg.md) | +1.7% | +5.6% |
| USDBRL | 2025-05-22 | [(BRL/USD) Real Sells Off as Brazil Taxes Remittances to Boost Budget - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24891-brl-usd-real-sells-off-as-brazil-taxes-remittances-to-boost-budget-bloomberg.md) | -0.2% | -2.7% |
| USDBRL | 2017-05-19 | [For These Die-Hard Investors, Now Is the Time to Buy Brazil - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4357-for-these-die-hard-investors-now-is-the-time-to-buy-brazil-bloomberg.md) | -2.8% | -2.7% |

## Sources

- octaafrica.net: https://www.octaafrica.net/markets/news/view/443946/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.