# China Slashes Phosphate Exports as US Courts Upend Tariffs

> China reportedly plans to allow only about 4 Mt of phosphate exports this year, versus a normal 9-10 Mt. India is seeking 1.5 Mt of urea with shipment by end-July, and US tariff litigation is adding uncertainty to phosphate supply.

- Date: 2025-05-29 · published 2025-05-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4337-china-slashes-phosphate-exports-as-us-courts-upend-tariffs
- Commodities: [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [TSP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/TSP.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

A sharply reduced Chinese phosphate quota tightens global supply while India's urea tender signals strong demand, both supporting fertilizer prices. Higher input costs eventually pass through to feed grain and oilseed production economics.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- TSP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2025-05-28 | 1 | +1.0% | 3.1 | Reports China will allow only about 4 Mt of phosphate exports versus a normal 9-10 Mt, a supply constraint that supports DAP prices; the 05-29 date falls after the 05-28 move, so it may reflect information already circulating. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2021-04-10 | [China bans phosphate exports \| mic-cust.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47540-china-bans-phosphate-exports-mic-cust-com.md) | +0.1% | +5.4% |
| DAP | 2022-07-15 | [China issues phosphate quotas to rein in fertiliser exports - analysts \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40413-china-issues-phosphate-quotas-to-rein-in-fertiliser-exports-analysts-reuters.md) | +0.6% | -5.7% |
| DAP | 2021-10-01 | [China expected to stop phosphate exports,  food production prices set to rise - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4698-china-expected-to-stop-phosphate-exports-food-production-prices-set-to-rise-abc.md) | +4.6% | +4.6% |
| DAP | 2026-10-19 | [China's Phosphate Fertilizer Exports Collapse, Squeezing Global Supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17363-china-s-phosphate-fertilizer-exports-collapse-squeezing-global-supply.md) | 0.0% | — |
| DAP | 2025-12-12 | [China Groups Urge Firms to Halt Phosphate Exports Until August - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21417-china-groups-urge-firms-to-halt-phosphate-exports-until-august-bloomberg.md) | -1.9% | -3.1% |
| UREA | 2025-04-07 | [New Tariffs Drive Urea Price Surge as Phosphate, Potash Strengthen \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25025-new-tariffs-drive-urea-price-surge-as-phosphate-potash-strengthen-cz-app.md) | +0.8% | +19.5% |
| UREA | 2021-09-29 | [Fertiliser price hits 13-year high, China 'bans' phosphate exports, glyphosate prices surge \| Queensland Country Life \| QLD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4697-fertiliser-price-hits-13-year-high-china-bans-phosphate-exports-glyphosate.md) | +31.3% | +34.0% |
| UREA | 2025-10-25 | [Fertiliser Prices Set to Surge as China Suspends Exports - PLY INSIGHT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9556-fertiliser-prices-set-to-surge-as-china-suspends-exports-ply-insight.md) | +1.1% | +1.5% |

## Sources

- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/05-29-2025-china-slashes-phosphate-exports/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.