# Can New Sanctions Spark a Fertilizer Price Shock?

> China may export only about 2 Mt of urea and 4 Mt of DAP, well below normal 5-10 Mt volumes, as Beijing controls outflows. Heavy Midwest rains are rebuilding North American fertilizer inventories, while EU-led sanctions could curb Russian and Belarusian potash flows.

- Date: 2025-06-03 · published 2025-06-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4336-can-new-sanctions-spark-a-fertilizer-price-shock
- Commodities: [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md)

## Why it matters

Restricted Chinese phosphate and urea exports keep global fertilizer supply tight, supporting prices. Potash supply risk from sanctions could lift input costs for corn and soybean growers.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- POTASH: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2021-09-27 | ['Perfect storm' causes fertilizer price spike - MarketsFarm](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45025-perfect-storm-causes-fertilizer-price-spike-marketsfarm.md) | +4.9% | +5.7% |
| DAP | 2022-12-04 | [Arab News \| Morocco reaps cash, clout from fertilizer supply shock](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38556-arab-news-morocco-reaps-cash-clout-from-fertilizer-supply-shock.md) | 0.0% | -4.0% |
| DAP | 2026-03-25 | [Fertilizer prices surge amid Iran war, sparking food security warnings](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20097-fertilizer-prices-surge-amid-iran-war-sparking-food-security-warnings.md) | +5.5% | +10.4% |
| DAP | 2026-09-01 | [Why higher fertilizer prices are here to stay](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17863-why-higher-fertilizer-prices-are-here-to-stay.md) | +0.3% | +1.6% |
| DAP | 2025-09-23 | [What Would Global Sanctions Against Russia Do to Fertilizer Markets?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22778-what-would-global-sanctions-against-russia-do-to-fertilizer-markets.md) | -3.2% | -1.7% |
| UREA | 2021-09-27 | ['Perfect storm' causes fertilizer price spike - MarketsFarm](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45025-perfect-storm-causes-fertilizer-price-spike-marketsfarm.md) | +27.6% | +32.7% |
| UREA | 2024-02-29 | [Middle East shipping disruptions could ignite fertilizer prices - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31978-middle-east-shipping-disruptions-could-ignite-fertilizer-prices-brownfield-ag.md) | +7.6% | +8.6% |
| UREA | 2026-03-25 | [Fertilizer prices surge amid Iran war, sparking food security warnings](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20097-fertilizer-prices-surge-amid-iran-war-sparking-food-security-warnings.md) | +2.1% | +11.5% |

## Sources

- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/06-03-2025-can-new-sanctions-spark-a-fertilizer-price-shock/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.