# EUR/USD: Not as cheap as it looks | articles | ING THINK

> ING's BEER model estimates EUR/USD is at least 9% overvalued in real terms, mainly due to a deterioration in the eurozone's terms of trade from high energy prices. The model uses OECD data through 4Q21 and has an R-squared of 0.71. The note argues the euro near 1.10 is not as cheap as the market believes.

- Date: 2022-03-16 · published 2022-03-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/42470-eur-usd-not-as-cheap-as-it-looks-articles-ing-think
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md)

## Why it matters

A stronger dollar view supports a firmer USD, which would pressure dollar-priced grain and oilseed prices. The analysis is valuation-based and does not reflect a new supply or demand event.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- EURUSD: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2019-11-28 | [EUR: The funding currency \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56282-eur-the-funding-currency-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.6% | -1.8% |
| DXY | 2024-04-17 | [A falling euro is not the ECB’s biggest headache \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30944-a-falling-euro-is-not-the-ecb-s-biggest-headache-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| DXY | 2018-07-24 | [US: Trumping the doubters \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63950-us-trumping-the-doubters-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.7% | +0.8% |
| DXY | 2024-02-05 | [FX Daily: Flip Flop \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31892-fx-daily-flip-flop-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.1% | -0.0% |
| DXY | 2021-12-02 | [Our three FX calls for 2022 \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43824-our-three-fx-calls-for-2022-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.4% | -0.5% |
| EURUSD | 2019-11-28 | [EUR: The funding currency \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56282-eur-the-funding-currency-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.9% | +1.6% |
| EURUSD | 2024-04-17 | [A falling euro is not the ECB’s biggest headache \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30944-a-falling-euro-is-not-the-ecb-s-biggest-headache-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.6% | +1.8% |
| EURUSD | 2020-03-12 | [ECB & EUR: Pouring oil into the fire \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54328-ecb-and-eur-pouring-oil-into-the-fire-articles-ing-think.md) | -4.0% | -3.7% |

## Sources

- think.ing.com: https://think.ing.com/articles/eur-usd-not-as-cheap-as-it-looks/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.