# Milk prices to be lower, less volatile in 2021

> USDA projects the all-milk price averaging $18.25 for 2020 and $17.70 for 2021. Class III prices rose through October and November on government cheese purchases, strong cheese exports and higher dry whey prices, but cheese fell sharply in November and Cropp warned December Class III could drop near or below $16.

- Date: 2020-12-01 · published 2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4224-milk-prices-to-be-lower-less-volatile-in-2021
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Lower projected 2021 milk prices and a sharp expected December Class III decline reduce dairy farm revenue and signal weaker demand for dairy-based feed ingredients, while steady production keeps supply ample.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2020-12-08 | 5 | -33.2% | -4.7 | Cheese fell sharply in November after government purchases faded, and the analyst warned that December Class III could drop near or below $16. |
| MILK | 2020-12-02 | 1 | -34.7% | -16.1 | Dated 12/1, it flags the sharp November cheese drop and a warning that December Class III could fall near or below $16, so it points to the downward repricing in the futures contract; the timing fits the move window. |
| MILK | 2020-12-02 | 5 | -34.4% | -4.8 | USDA outlook notes cheese fell sharply in November and December Class III could drop near or below $16, reinforcing downward price expectations. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2020-12-28 | [Too much milk pushes prices lower](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49649-too-much-milk-pushes-prices-lower.md) | -1.8% | +2.7% |
| MILK | 2021-07-29 | [Too much milk drives prices lower](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46064-too-much-milk-drives-prices-lower.md) | -3.0% | -3.0% |
| MILK | 2023-01-26 | [Milk price forecast for 2023 much lower than 2022 prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37781-milk-price-forecast-for-2023-much-lower-than-2022-prices.md) | -7.9% | -7.9% |
| MILK | 2023-01-30 | [All Milk Prices Expected To Drop In 2023](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5878-all-milk-prices-expected-to-drop-in-2023.md) | -8.0% | -8.4% |
| MILK | 2017-11-29 | [Exports key to higher milk prices in 2018](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67977-exports-key-to-higher-milk-prices-in-2018.md) | -8.3% | -8.3% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/management/milk-prices-to-be-lower-less-volatile-in-2021

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.