# Why Is the Euro Falling? EUR/JPY and the French Debt Stress

> A commentary piece argues the euro will keep falling, mostly against the yen, as French government bond risk premiums have nearly doubled. The stress has moved into the cross-currency basis, a gauge of demand for dollars. EUR/USD options do not yet confirm an imminent decline.

- Date: 2026-10-31 · published 2026-11-01T06:10:05.963Z
- Category: macro · region Eurozone · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4220-why-is-the-euro-falling-eur-jpy-and-the-french-debt-stress
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md)

## Why it matters

Rising French risk premiums and dollar funding demand can weaken the euro against the dollar, raising import costs for European feed buyers. The gap between EUR/USD and EUR/JPY signals suggests the dollar pressure may be concentrated.

## Read by commodity

- EURUSD: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2024-11-13 | [Why is the euro falling and could it hit $1?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7554-why-is-the-euro-falling-and-could-it-hit-1.md) | -0.2% | -0.8% |
| EURUSD | 2025-09-01 | [French political storm: What it means for bonds and the euro](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23535-french-political-storm-what-it-means-for-bonds-and-the-euro.md) | +0.5% | +0.3% |
| EURUSD | 2024-04-17 | [A falling euro is not the ECB’s biggest headache \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30944-a-falling-euro-is-not-the-ecb-s-biggest-headache-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.6% | +1.8% |
| EURUSD | 2023-05-28 | [The Dollar Is Still King in Europe, and It’s Swaying Interest Rates - WSJ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36156-the-dollar-is-still-king-in-europe-and-it-s-swaying-interest-rates-wsj.md) | +0.1% | +2.3% |
| EURUSD | 2021-11-23 | [The euro is plunging – and probably won’t bounce back soon](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11260-the-euro-is-plunging-and-probably-won-t-bounce-back-soon.md) | +0.2% | +0.1% |

## Sources

- newsletter.crossvolresearch.com: https://newsletter.crossvolresearch.com/p/why-is-the-euro-falling-eur-jpy-france-cross-currency-basis

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.