# Analysis-Hawkish Fed and China lockdowns threaten Brazil’s world-beating FX rally – Financial Newsletter

> Reuters reports the Brazilian real, up over 18% against the dollar so far in 2022, faces risk of reversal as aggressive US rate hikes and China's COVID lockdowns threaten the currency's rally. Citi forecasts a year-end rate of 5.19 reais per dollar, nearly 10% weaker than the prior close.

- Date: 2022-04-15 · published 2022-04-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/42056-analysis-hawkish-fed-and-china-lockdowns-threaten-brazil-s-world-beating-fx
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Lockdown-driven weakness in Chinese demand could lower prices for Brazilian soybeans and other exports, while a weaker real would partly offset that in local-currency terms.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2023-05-31 | [Brazil's real leads fall in Latam FX, Chile's peso down as copper output drops \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36145-brazil-s-real-leads-fall-in-latam-fx-chile-s-peso-down-as-copper-output-drops.md) | -3.0% | -4.3% |
| USDBRL | 2021-10-28 | [Brazil's real drops as larger-than-expected rate hike fails to satisfy \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44779-brazil-s-real-drops-as-larger-than-expected-rate-hike-fails-to-satisfy.md) | +0.7% | +0.2% |
| USDBRL | 2020-07-23 | [Latam FX weakens, Brazil's real comes off one-month high \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52312-latam-fx-weakens-brazil-s-real-comes-off-one-month-high-financial-post.md) | +1.0% | +8.0% |
| USDBRL | 2022-06-07 | [Brazilian real hits 2-week low, Chilean peso slips before rate move \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41152-brazilian-real-hits-2-week-low-chilean-peso-slips-before-rate-move-financial.md) | +6.3% | +13.7% |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-26 | [Brazil’s real sinks after Lula’s re-election victory \| Financial Markets News \| Al Jazeera](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17283-brazil-s-real-sinks-after-lula-s-re-election-victory-financial-markets-news-al.md) | +7.6% | — |
| SOY | 2022-08-15 | [Greenback gains, Aussie tumbles after weak Chinese data – Financial Newsletter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40298-greenback-gains-aussie-tumbles-after-weak-chinese-data-financial-newsletter.md) | -10.8% | -7.2% |
| SOY | 2023-01-20 | [Brazil's real set for 2% weekly loss on worries over c.bank independence \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37979-brazil-s-real-set-for-2-weekly-loss-on-worries-over-c-bank-independence.md) | +0.6% | +0.8% |
| SOY | 2021-06-22 | [Why a hawkish US Fed is reverberating around markets \| The National](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46489-why-a-hawkish-us-fed-is-reverberating-around-markets-the-national.md) | -4.1% | +2.0% |

## Sources

- financialnewsletter.com: https://financialnewsletter.com/analysis-hawkish-fed-and-china/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.