# Forecasting commodity returns by exploiting climate model forecasts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation

> A Cambridge Environmental Data Science paper, published online 13 April 2022, examines whether climate model forecasts of ENSO can predict monthly returns for commodities produced in tropical regions. The authors are from CSIRO, Monash University and Macquarie University.

- Date: 2022-05-01 · published 2022-05-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/41771-forecasting-commodity-returns-by-exploiting-climate-model-forecasts-of-the-el
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

The study suggests ENSO forecasts could help anticipate price moves in tropical commodities, but it is academic research with no immediate supply change behind it. Its effect on near-term prices is minimal.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2017-02-16 | [Brazil forecasts record soy and corn harvests, on good climate conditions — MercoPress](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72331-brazil-forecasts-record-soy-and-corn-harvests-on-good-climate-conditions.md) | -0.3% | -1.5% |
| CORN | 2018-03-28 | [Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations \| Nature Communications](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65925-two-thirds-of-global-cropland-area-impacted-by-climate-oscillations-nature.md) | +3.3% | +4.9% |
| CORN | 2019-07-01 | [ENSO forecast mash-ups: What’s the best way to combine human expertise with models? \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58002-enso-forecast-mash-ups-what-s-the-best-way-to-combine-human-expertise-with.md) | +1.3% | +0.2% |
| CORN | 2020-11-11 | [AgriMarketing.com - Ag Commodity Prices Surge On USDA's Reduced Yield Forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50096-agrimarketing-com-ag-commodity-prices-surge-on-usda-s-reduced-yield-forecasts.md) | +7.9% | +7.0% |
| CORN | 2023-03-30 | [FAPRI-MU Outlook forecasts price retreat for most commodities](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37002-fapri-mu-outlook-forecasts-price-retreat-for-most-commodities.md) | -0.5% | -3.0% |
| SOY | 2018-03-28 | [Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations \| Nature Communications](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65925-two-thirds-of-global-cropland-area-impacted-by-climate-oscillations-nature.md) | -0.4% | +0.8% |
| SOY | 2016-12-17 | [Companies are underestimating the risks of deforestation in their commodities supply chains](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73496-companies-are-underestimating-the-risks-of-deforestation-in-their-commodities.md) | -4.6% | +3.7% |
| SOY | 2019-07-01 | [ENSO forecast mash-ups: What’s the best way to combine human expertise with models? \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58002-enso-forecast-mash-ups-what-s-the-best-way-to-combine-human-expertise-with.md) | -2.7% | -1.6% |

## Sources

- cambridge.org: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/environmental-data-science/article/forecasting-commodity-returns-by-exploiting-climate-model-forecasts-of-the-el-nino-southern-oscillation/DDFF5839AA65ADD1FDCDC2404E690525

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.