# Breaking down G10 valuation: the key is in the terms of trade

> An ING analysis using a BEER fair-value model finds the dollar is not exceptionally expensive against G10 currencies. The euro, pound and krona have lost fair value from a negative terms-of-trade shock, while commodity currencies look undervalued.

- Date: 2022-05-23 · published 2022-05-23T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/41614-breaking-down-g10-valuation-the-key-is-in-the-terms-of-trade
- Commodities: [Australian Dollar (USD per AUD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/AUDUSD.md), [Canadian Dollar (CAD per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDCAD.md), [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md)

## Why it matters

Currency valuation signals suggest commodity-linked currencies such as AUD and CAD may recover, which can shift export competitiveness and origin-country commodity pricing.

## Read by commodity

- AUDUSD: bullish ▲
- EURUSD: neutral
- USDCAD: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2025-09-11 | [Traders raise bets that the ECB is done cutting rates \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23093-traders-raise-bets-that-the-ecb-is-done-cutting-rates-reuters.md) | +1.1% | -0.9% |
| EURUSD | 2021-02-09 | [Euroflation: the EUR reflation trade and its market implications \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48857-euroflation-the-eur-reflation-trade-and-its-market-implications-articles-ing.md) | +0.5% | -1.3% |
| EURUSD | 2018-12-25 | [Currency strategists, traders differ on future of euro in 2019 - The Gulf Time Newspaper](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61771-currency-strategists-traders-differ-on-future-of-euro-in-2019-the-gulf-time.md) | -0.4% | +0.0% |
| EURUSD | 2018-02-26 | [The one interest rate differential that is driving the US dollar \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66696-the-one-interest-rate-differential-that-is-driving-the-us-dollar-ing-think.md) | +0.1% | +0.5% |
| EURUSD | 2022-08-26 | [fed: Dollar volatile after Fed's Powell comments on inflation - The Economic Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39943-fed-dollar-volatile-after-fed-s-powell-comments-on-inflation-the-economic-times.md) | -0.1% | -2.4% |

## Sources

- think.ing.com: https://think.ing.com/articles/breaking-down-g10-valuation-the-key-is-in-the-terms-of-trade

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.