# Black swan in the Black Sea: fertilizer

> Sanctions banning Russian fertilizer exports and China's urea and phosphate production lockdown are squeezing global supplies. Brazil, the largest fertilizer importer, sources 85% of its needs abroad and had relied on Russia for over half its potash before the war.

- Date: 2022-05-26 · published 2022-05-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/41329-black-swan-in-the-black-sea-fertilizer
- Commodities: [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Brazil's need for potash by September for the 2023 soybean crop keeps potash demand firm and supports prices for the coming season.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- POTASH: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2023-02-20 | [World’s fertilizer market in turmoil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37253-world-s-fertilizer-market-in-turmoil.md) | +1.8% | -3.8% |
| UREA | 2026-10-01 | [Hunger on the Horizon: The New Black Sea Grain Crisis](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14088-hunger-on-the-horizon-the-new-black-sea-grain-crisis.md) | -6.6% | -4.1% |
| UREA | 2026-03-03 | [Fertilizer Markets Surge Following Escalation in the Middle East - RFD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4435-fertilizer-markets-surge-following-escalation-in-the-middle-east-rfd.md) | +10.0% | +19.1% |
| UREA | 2022-09-28 | [How the war in Ukraine is affecting the world's supply of fertilizer : NPR](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39891-how-the-war-in-ukraine-is-affecting-the-world-s-supply-of-fertilizer-npr.md) | -5.3% | -9.1% |
| UREA | 2022-01-27 | [More Fertilizer Volatility?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43455-more-fertilizer-volatility.md) | -5.6% | -7.4% |
| DAP | 2023-02-20 | [World’s fertilizer market in turmoil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37253-world-s-fertilizer-market-in-turmoil.md) | -5.5% | -1.0% |
| DAP | 2026-03-03 | [Fertilizer Markets Surge Following Escalation in the Middle East - RFD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4435-fertilizer-markets-surge-following-escalation-in-the-middle-east-rfd.md) | +1.2% | +7.3% |
| DAP | 2022-09-28 | [How the war in Ukraine is affecting the world's supply of fertilizer : NPR](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39891-how-the-war-in-ukraine-is-affecting-the-world-s-supply-of-fertilizer-npr.md) | -2.6% | -2.2% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/business/black-swan-in-the-black-sea-fertilizer

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.