# August '25 Farmer Fertilizer Newsletter - Phosphate

> StoneX's fertilizer analyst says global phosphate supplies remain tight as Chinese export volumes stay far below normal and Indian stockpiles are low. Suppliers have strong pricing power because Indian demand is considered insensitive to price.

- Date: 2025-07-31 · published 2025-07-31T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4132-august-25-farmer-fertilizer-newsletter-phosphate
- Commodities: [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Tight supply with little near-term new production means phosphate prices are likely to stay firm or rise, raising input costs for feed and livestock producers.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2025-08-03 | 5 | +8.3% | 10.4 | StoneX notes tight global phosphate supply, very low Chinese exports and low Indian stocks with price-insensitive Indian demand, giving suppliers pricing power and supporting DAP prices. |
| DAP | 2025-08-01 | 1 | +8.3% | 20.5 | StoneX's 31 July view that phosphate supply is tight, with Chinese exports far below normal, Indian stocks low and Indian demand price-insensitive, gives suppliers strong pricing power and supports a sharp DAP price jump. |
| DAP | 2025-08-07 | 5 | +8.3% | 3.3 | StoneX flagged tight global phosphate supply, with Chinese exports far below normal, low Indian stocks and price-insensitive Indian demand, which gives suppliers pricing power and supports a DAP rally. |
| DAP | 2025-07-31 | 1 | +8.3% | 20.5 | Dated on the move day, it says global phosphate supply is tight with low Chinese exports and low Indian stocks, and that suppliers have strong pricing power, which supports a sharp DAP price rise. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2021-11-01 | [Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5552-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphates.md) | +7.8% | +10.0% |
| DAP | 2022-01-01 | [Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43478-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphates.md) | -0.1% | -4.8% |
| DAP | 2022-07-03 | [Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40811-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphates.md) | +4.0% | -0.7% |
| DAP | 2024-09-24 | [October '24 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphate](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28228-october-24-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphate.md) | -0.5% | +0.8% |
| DAP | 2024-08-26 | [September '24 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphate](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28680-september-24-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphate.md) | +2.6% | +2.0% |

## Sources

- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/august-25-farmer-fertilizer-newsletter-phosphate/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.