# Grim Reality: Global “Wall of Milk” Weighs on Dairy Markets as Production Surges - Dairy Herd

> RaboResearch's Lucas Fuess says rising milk output in the U.S. and other major exporters has pushed dairy markets into oversupply. Class IV futures are around $13, well below current cost of production and far under the $22 to $23 seen a year earlier. Output growth near 4 percent is expected to persist into 2026.

- Date: 2025-12-03 · published 2025-12-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: market · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/4089-grim-reality-global-wall-of-milk-weighs-on-dairy-markets-as-production-surges
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Oversupply and futures prices below production costs signal continued pressure on milk prices, which may cut farm feed budgets and slow dairy herd expansion over time.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2025-12-03 | 5 | -8.1% | -3.2 | Rabobank's 'wall of milk' commentary on global oversupply and Class IV futures near $13 reflects a supply-driven bearish sentiment shift. |
| MILK | 2025-12-03 | 1 | -7.9% | -22.2 | The 'wall of milk' oversupply narrative, with production growth near 4% and futures well below cost of production, supports bearish sentiment and selling pressure on 2025-12-03. |

## Sources

- dairyherd.com: https://www.dairyherd.com/news/business/grim-reality-global-wall-milk-weighs-dairy-markets-production-surges

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.