# The Ukrainian supply chain issue will remain the main upside risk to food inflation in the coming months even with significant increase in shipments from Danube ports

> S&P Global analyst Daejin Lee says the Ukrainian supply chain issue will remain the main upside risk to food inflation in coming months. Danube river shipments from Ukraine and Romania have risen sharply but mostly on small vessels under 10,000 dwt, too small to offset lost Ukrainian cargo. Border silos for inland transport will take months to build.

- Date: 2022-06-20 · published 2022-06-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: logistics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/40848-the-ukrainian-supply-chain-issue-will-remain-the-main-upside-risk-to-food
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Limited Danube volumes mean world wheat and grain supply stays short through the Q3 harvest period, keeping prices supported for feed-grade wheat and corn.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-03 | [Freight rates for grain exports from Ukraine have increased \| Ukrainian and World Shipping News - Ukrainian Shipping Magazine - Ukrainian and World Shipping News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25783-freight-rates-for-grain-exports-from-ukraine-have-increased-ukrainian-and-world.md) | -3.4% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2022-04-10 | [Grains shipments from Black Sea ports slowly gain traction: sources - Supply Chain Council of European Union \| Scceu.org](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14493-grains-shipments-from-black-sea-ports-slowly-gain-traction-sources-supply-chain.md) | -2.4% | +3.1% |
| WHEAT | 2019-06-17 | [Grain shipment in Ukrainian seaports dropped 40 pct — Latifundist.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58445-grain-shipment-in-ukrainian-seaports-dropped-40-pct-latifundist-com.md) | -6.1% | -8.7% |
| WHEAT | 2018-07-06 | [Russia resorts to ship-to-ship transfer to deal with increased grain export — RealnoeVremya.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63886-russia-resorts-to-ship-to-ship-transfer-to-deal-with-increased-grain-export.md) | -1.6% | +3.9% |
| WHEAT | 2019-02-12 | [Ukrainian seaports reduced grain shipments by 5 pct wk/wk — Latifundist.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60445-ukrainian-seaports-reduced-grain-shipments-by-5-pct-wk-wk-latifundist-com.md) | -1.5% | -5.4% |
| CORN | 2024-03-25 | [Freight rates for the transportation of grain from Ukrainian ports have increased \| Ukrainian and World Shipping News - Ukrainian Shipping Magazine - Ukrainian and World Shipping News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31096-freight-rates-for-the-transportation-of-grain-from-ukrainian-ports-have.md) | -4.9% | -6.9% |
| CORN | 2026-10-27 | [Grain freight rates from Ukrainian Danube ports to Egypt rise by $10/t in one week](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17247-grain-freight-rates-from-ukrainian-danube-ports-to-egypt-rise-by-10-t-in-one.md) | +0.0% | — |
| CORN | 2025-03-03 | [Freight rates for grain exports from Ukraine have increased \| Ukrainian and World Shipping News - Ukrainian Shipping Magazine - Ukrainian and World Shipping News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25783-freight-rates-for-grain-exports-from-ukraine-have-increased-ukrainian-and-world.md) | -0.2% | +2.5% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/ukrainian-supply-chain-issue-will-remain-the-main-upside-risks.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.