# UPDATE 1-U.S. Wheat Harvest Falls Below Forecasts; Prices Rally

> USDA's annual Small Grains Summary put the 2022 U.S. wheat crop at 1.650 billion bushels, well below the 1.778 billion expected in a Reuters poll and the 1.783 billion estimated in August. Dry western soils cut yields and caused heavy abandonment. CBOT wheat futures rose about 3% to their highest since July 11.

- Date: 2022-09-30 · published 2022-09-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/39630-update-1-u-s-wheat-harvest-falls-below-forecasts-prices-rally
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller-than-expected US crop tightens supplies for exporters and feed users, supporting wheat prices and a substitute role for feed wheat against corn.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-10 | [USDA forecasts smallest wheat harvest since 1970 \| Farmtario](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18275-usda-forecasts-smallest-wheat-harvest-since-1970-farmtario.md) | +0.9% | +0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2021-09-30 | [U.S. wheat stocks fall after harvest shortfalls](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45038-u-s-wheat-stocks-fall-after-harvest-shortfalls.md) | +5.6% | +8.7% |
| WHEAT | 2024-09-19 | [France lowers soft wheat harvest and export forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28264-france-lowers-soft-wheat-harvest-and-export-forecasts.md) | +11.4% | +5.6% |
| WHEAT | 2024-01-02 | [Experts have lowered the forecast for the soft wheat harvest in the EU](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32067-experts-have-lowered-the-forecast-for-the-soft-wheat-harvest-in-the-eu.md) | -2.8% | -2.7% |
| WHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [Key data in USDA stocks and wheat harvest reports, and difference from market forecasts - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39554-key-data-in-usda-stocks-and-wheat-harvest-reports-and-difference-from-market.md) | +0.4% | -10.7% |
| CORN | 2025-11-18 | [Visualizing USDA's updates to yield forecasts - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13040-visualizing-usda-s-updates-to-yield-forecasts-pro-farmer.md) | -1.7% | -0.1% |
| CORN | 2024-10-16 | [France trims soft wheat crop estimate, raises maize forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27790-france-trims-soft-wheat-crop-estimate-raises-maize-forecast.md) | +2.5% | +3.9% |
| CORN | 2024-08-13 | [Despite lower production and inventory forecasts in the USDA report, wheat exchange prices fell](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28812-despite-lower-production-and-inventory-forecasts-in-the-usda-report-wheat.md) | -1.2% | +0.1% |

## Sources

- agriculture.com: https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/update-1-us-wheat-harvest-falls-below-forecasts-prices-rally

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.