# US Beef Demand Seen Falling in 2023 as Cattle Herd Continues to Shrink – The Van Trump Report

> USDA's October Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook projects U.S. beef demand to fall in 2023 as the cattle herd shrinks. High grocery beef prices are expected to shift consumers toward chicken and pork. Drought is pulling cattle forward into feedlots, and heifers now make up nearly 40% of feedlot inventories.

- Date: 2022-10-26 · published 2022-10-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/39088-us-beef-demand-seen-falling-in-2023-as-cattle-herd-continues-to-shrink-the-van
- Commodities: [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md), [Chicken](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CHICKEN.md), [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md)

## Why it matters

Shrinking herd supply supports cattle prices, while weaker beef demand and substitution toward chicken and pork pressure them. Both forces point in different directions for livestock markets.

## Read by commodity

- HOGS: bullish ▲
- CHICKEN: bullish ▲
- LCATTLE: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LCATTLE | 2020-07-22 | [USDA Releases Report on Boxed Beef and Fed Cattle Price Investigation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52238-usda-releases-report-on-boxed-beef-and-fed-cattle-price-investigation.md) | -0.0% | +6.9% |
| LCATTLE | 2026-09-08 | [USDA Beef Market Data: Boxed Beef Cutout, Cattle Summary, Tallow & Hide Report (Sept 8, 2026) - News and Statistics - IndexBox](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17592-usda-beef-market-data-boxed-beef-cutout-cattle-summary-tallow-and-hide-report.md) | +1.2% | +0.9% |
| LCATTLE | 2017-01-01 | [USDA beefs up fed cattle price reporting](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73130-usda-beefs-up-fed-cattle-price-reporting.md) | -0.8% | +2.6% |
| LCATTLE | 2023-07-28 | [Beef exporters still counting on US herd rebuild boost \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35001-beef-exporters-still-counting-on-us-herd-rebuild-boost-farm-online-act.md) | -0.2% | +0.2% |
| LCATTLE | 2022-03-11 | [Weekly global protein digest: Australia's beef herd recovering, HPAI, US dairy markets
						 \| The Cattle Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42221-weekly-global-protein-digest-australia-s-beef-herd-recovering-hpai-us-dairy.md) | +0.5% | +0.3% |
| HOGS | 2025-01-28 | [Live cattle contracts hit lifetime highs following USDA report - CME
						 \| The Beef Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26649-live-cattle-contracts-hit-lifetime-highs-following-usda-report-cme-the-beef-site.md) | +2.0% | +6.6% |
| HOGS | 2019-04-18 | [Beef Market Update: USDA Cattle on Feed, calving season, and dry pasture conditions on the Prairies - RealAgriculture](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5962-beef-market-update-usda-cattle-on-feed-calving-season-and-dry-pasture.md) | +1.7% | +3.3% |
| HOGS | 2024-09-24 | [What Could the Upcoming Hogs and Pigs Report Hold in Store and Implications for Pork Supply in 2025? - Pork Checkoff](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28476-what-could-the-upcoming-hogs-and-pigs-report-hold-in-store-and-implications-for.md) | -0.5% | -3.1% |

## Sources

- vantrumpreport.com: https://www.vantrumpreport.com/2022/10/26/us-beef-demand-seen-falling-in-2023-as-cattle-herd-continues-to-shrink/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.