# If El Nino Appears Later 2023, How Will Global Precipitation Patterns Change? - Climate Impact Company

> Climate Impact Company forecasts a third La Niña peak in November 2022, with neutral ENSO by February–March 2023. It says El Niño could develop in the second half of 2023, bringing wet risk to the southern US and northern Argentina/southern Brazil and dryness to India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Australia.

- Date: 2022-10-10 · published 2022-10-10T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/39023-if-el-nino-appears-later-2023-how-will-global-precipitation-patterns-change
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A possible shift to El Niño later in 2023 would threaten palm oil, Indian and Australian crops while favoring South American wetness, creating a longer-range supply risk that markets may begin to price.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2023-06-16 | [FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35405-factbox-mapping-el-nino-s-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24.md) | +1.8% | +14.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-24 | [Explainer: How El Nino could impact the world's weather in 2026/27 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19629-explainer-how-el-nino-could-impact-the-world-s-weather-in-2026-27-reuters.md) | -0.0% | -1.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-06-08 | [Extreme weather expected as El Nino climate pattern returns, US forecaster says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35406-extreme-weather-expected-as-el-nino-climate-pattern-returns-us-forecaster-says.md) | +2.1% | +14.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | -1.4% | -8.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-12-06 | [How long will the El Nino last? Latest official forecasts - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32486-how-long-will-the-el-nino-last-latest-official-forecasts-grain-price-news.md) | -1.3% | -3.3% |
| WHEAT | 2021-05-04 | [Global Crop Areas Susceptible to Drought - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46988-global-crop-areas-susceptible-to-drought-climate-impact-company.md) | +5.0% | -1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2021-10-15 | [Climate impacts global wheat production in the 2021/22 harvest - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44485-climate-impacts-global-wheat-production-in-the-2021-22-harvest-revista-cultivar.md) | +1.0% | +9.3% |
| WHEAT | 2023-06-16 | [FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35405-factbox-mapping-el-nino-s-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24.md) | +3.5% | -0.1% |

## Sources

- climateimpactcompany.com: https://climateimpactcompany.com/october-2022-enso-outlook-through-2023-another-la-nina-peak-in-november-followed-by-speedy-demise-in-early-2023-el-nino-is-projected-for-later-2023-2-2/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.